Related papers: No arbitrage and lead-lag relationships
A financial market model where agents trade using realistic combinations of buy-and-hold strategies is considered. Minimal assumptions are made on the discounted asset-price process - in particular, the semimartingale property is not…
We consider the problem of option pricing and hedging when stock returns are correlated in time. Within a quadratic-risk minimisation scheme, we obtain a general formula, valid for weakly correlated non-Gaussian processes. We show that for…
In the context of a general continuous financial market model, we study whether the additional information associated with an honest time gives rise to arbitrage profits. By relying on the theory of progressive enlargement of filtrations,…
A model-free measure of coupling between dynamical variables is built from time series embedding principle. The approach described does not require a mathematical form for the dynamics to be assumed. The approach also does not require…
We investigate quantitatively the so-called leverage effect, which corresponds to a negative correlation between past returns and future volatility. For individual stocks, this correlation is moderate and decays exponentially over 50 days,…
We study the time dependent cross correlations of stock returns, i.e. we measure the correlation as the function of the time shift between pairs of stock return time series using tick-by-tick data. We find a weak but significant effect…
We study a continuous-time financial market with continuous price processes under model uncertainty, modeled via a family $\mathcal{P}$ of possible physical measures. A robust notion ${\rm NA}_{1}(\mathcal{P})$ of no-arbitrage of the first…
Existence of stochastic financial equilibria giving rise to semimartingale asset prices is established under a general class of assumptions. These equilibria are expressed in real terms and span complete markets or markets with withdrawal…
Financial time series exhibit two different type of non linear correlations: (i) volatility autocorrelations that have a very long range memory, on the order of years, and (ii) asymmetric return-volatility (or `leverage') correlations that…
We obtain a constructive criterion for robust no-arbitrage in discrete-time market models with transaction costs. This criterion is expressed in terms of the supports of the regular conditional upper distributions of the solvency cones. We…
In this work a relation between a measure of short-term arbitrage in the market and the excess growth of portfolios as a notion of long-term arbitrage is established. The former originates from "Geometric Arbitrage Theory" and the latter…
We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive…
In this paper we study the evolution of asset price bubbles driven by contagion effects spreading among investors via a random matching mechanism in a discrete-time version of the liquidity based model of [25]. To this scope, we extend the…
In [2] the notion of stickiness for stochastic processes was introduced. It was also shown that stickiness implies absense of arbitrage in a market with proportional transaction costs. In this paper, we investigate the notion of stickiness…
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous…
In this paper a finite discrete time market with an arbitrary state space and bid-ask spreads is considered. The notion of an equivalent bid-ask martingale measure (EBAMM) is introduced and the fundamental theorem of asset pricing is proved…
In this article, we show necessary and sufficient conditions for a function to transform a continuous Markov semimartingale to a semimartingale. As a result, the no-arbitrage principle guarantees the differentiability of asset prices with…
In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian…
We study risk-sharing economies where heterogenous agents trade subject to quadratic transaction costs. The corresponding equilibrium asset prices and trading strategies are characterised by a system of nonlinear, fully-coupled…
The lead-lag effect, where the price movement of one asset systematically precedes that of another, has been widely observed in financial markets and conveys valuable predictive signals for trading. However, traditional lead-lag detection…