Related papers: Profit Driven Decision Trees for Churn Prediction

Classification and Regression Trees (CARTs) are off-the-shelf techniques in modern Statistics and Machine Learning. CARTs are traditionally built by means of a greedy procedure, sequentially deciding the splitting predictor variable(s) and…

In subscription-based businesses, the churn rate refers to the percentage of customers who discontinue their subscriptions within a given time period. Particularly, in the mobile games industry, the churn rate is often pronounced due to the…

Customer churn is a major problem and one of the most important concerns for large companies. Due to the direct effect on the revenues of the companies, especially in the telecom field, companies are seeking to develop means to predict…

In online retail, customer acquisition typically incurs higher costs than customer retention, motivating firms to invest in churn analytics. However, many contemporary churn models operate as opaque black boxes, limiting insight into the…

Decision trees are powerful machine learning algorithms, widely used in fields such as economics and medicine for their simplicity and interpretability. However, decision trees such as CART are prone to overfitting, especially when grown…

Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However,…

Several real-world classification problems are example-dependent cost-sensitive in nature, where the costs due to misclassification vary between examples and not only within classes. However, standard classification methods do not take…

Predicting a customer's propensity-to-pay at an early point in the revenue cycle can provide organisations many opportunities to improve the customer experience, reduce hardship and reduce the risk of impaired cash flow and occurrence of…

Discrete-choice models are used in economics, marketing and revenue management to predict customer purchase probabilities, say as a function of prices and other features of the offered assortment. While they have been shown to be…

This paper tackles challenges in pricing and revenue projections due to consumer uncertainty. We propose a novel data-based approach for firms facing unknown consumer type distributions. Unlike existing methods, we assume firms only observe…

Ensembles of classification and regression trees remain popular machine learning methods because they define flexible non-parametric models that predict well and are computationally efficient both during training and testing. During…

Social network analytics methods are being used in the telecommunication industry to predict customer churn with great success. In particular it has been shown that relational learners adapted to this specific problem enhance the…

Incorporating domain-specific constraints into machine learning models is essential for generating predictions that are both accurate and feasible in real-world applications. This paper introduces new methods for training Output-Constrained…

Customer churn, the discontinuation of services by existing customers, poses a significant challenge to the telecommunications industry. This paper proposes a novel adaptive ensemble learning framework for highly accurate customer churn…

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction models are integral to a myriad of industrial settings, such as personalized search advertising. Current methods typically involve feature extraction from users' historical behavior sequences combined…

Decision tree is an effective classification approach in data mining and machine learning. In applications, test costs and misclassification costs should be considered while inducing decision trees. Recently, some cost-sensitive learning…

Price discrimination for maximizing expected profit is a well-studied concept in economics and there are various methods that achieve the maximum given the user type distribution and the budget constraints. In many applications,…

Decision Tree is a well understood Machine Learning model that is based on minimizing impurities in the internal nodes. The most common impurity measures are Shannon entropy and Gini impurity. These impurity measures are insensitive to the…

A robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented for linear, time invariant systems with unknown dynamics and subject to bounded measurement noise. The system is characterized by an impulse response model, which is…

Data-driven pricing strategies are becoming increasingly common, where customers are offered a personalized price based on features that are predictive of their valuation of a product. It is desirable for this pricing policy to be simple…