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We propose a method to classify the causal relationship between two discrete variables given only the joint distribution of the variables, acknowledging that the method is subject to an inherent baseline error. We assume that the causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-07 Krzysztof Chalupka , Frederick Eberhardt , Pietro Perona

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Raha Moraffah , Paras Sheth , Mansooreh Karami , Anchit Bhattacharya , Qianru Wang , Anique Tahir , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

Identifying ``true causality'' is a fundamental challenge in complex systems research. Widely adopted methods, like the Granger causality test, capture statistical dependencies between variables rather than genuine driver-response…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Yingzhu Liu , Shengyuan Huang , Zhongkui Li , Xiaoguang Yang , Wenjun Mei

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Gonçalo R. A. Faria , André F. T. Martins , Mário A. T. Figueiredo

Causal discovery from time-series data aims to capture both intra-slice (contemporaneous) and inter-slice (time-lagged) causality between variables within the temporal chain, which is crucial for various scientific disciplines. Compared to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Rujia Shen , Boran Wang , Chao Zhao , Yi Guan , Jingchi Jiang

Inferring causation from time series data is of scientific interest in different disciplines, particularly in neural connectomics. While different approaches exist in the literature with parametric modeling assumptions, we focus on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Rahul Biswas , SuryaNarayana Sripada , Somabha Mukherjee

Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal models (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Kang Du , Yu Xiang

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-19 Anqi Liu , Hao Liu , Tongxin Li , Saeed Karimi-Bidhendi , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar

The analysis of temporal networks heavily depends on the analysis of time-respecting paths. However, before being able to model and analyze the time-respecting paths, we have to infer the timescales at which the temporal edges influence…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-30 Luka V. Petrović , Anatol Wegner , Ingo Scholtes

The intuition of causation is so fundamental that almost every research study in life sciences refers to this concept. However a widely accepted formal definition of causal influence between observables is still missing. In the framework of…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-04-26 Andrea Auconi , Andrea Giansanti , Edda Klipp

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Mehdi Fatemi , Sindhu Gowda

Unraveling the causal relationships among the execution of process activities is a crucial element in predicting the consequences of process interventions and making informed decisions regarding process improvements. Process discovery…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Fabiana Fournier , Lior Limonad , Inna Skarbovsky , Yuval David

Complex data usually results from the interaction of objects produced by different generating mechanisms. Here we introduce a universal, unsupervised and parameter-free model-oriented approach, based upon the seminal concept of algorithmic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-14 Hector Zenil , Narsis A. Kiani , Allan A. Zea , Jesper Tegnér

Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Kevin Li , Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Mike West

Mediation analysis has been used in many disciplines to explain the mechanism or process that underlies an observed relationship between an exposure variable and an outcome variable via the inclusion of mediators. Decompositions of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-03 Xin Gao , Li Li , Li Luo

Causal discovery is challenging in general dynamical systems because, without strong structural assumptions, the underlying causal graph may not be identifiable even from interventional data. However, many real-world systems exhibit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Panayiotis Panayiotou , Özgür Şimşek

This paper introduces a novel decomposition framework to explain heterogeneity in causal effects observed across different studies, considering both observational and randomized settings. We present a formal decomposition of between-study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Brian Gilbert , Ivan Dıaz , Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas Williams , Tat-Thang Vo