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Identifying causal treatment (or exposure) effects in observational studies requires the data to satisfy the unconfoundedness assumption which is not testable using the observed data. With sensitivity analysis, one can determine how the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Yang Ou , Lu Tang , Chung-Chou H. Chang

One of the challenges in the design of confirmatory trials is to deal with uncertainties regarding the optimal target population for a novel drug. Adaptive enrichment designs (AED) which allow for a data-driven selection of one or more…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-15 Anh Nguyen Duc , Dominik Heinzmann , Claude Berge , Marcel Wolbers

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is important for decision making in medical and clinical practices, or handling various engineering and marketing challenges. When dealing with high-dimensional covariates or when the effect…

The assumption that no subject's exposure affects another subject's outcome, known as the no-interference assumption, has long held a foundational position in the study of causal inference. However, this assumption may be violated in many…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-27 Caleb H. Miles , Maya Petersen , Mark J. van der Laan

Suppose that a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence an outcome of interest that occurs after the last treatment. Between treatments there exist time-dependent covariates that may be posttreatment variables of the earlier…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-28 Li Yin , Xiaoqin Wang

Using only retrospective data, we study the problem of predicting treatment effects for the same treatment/policy implemented in a different location or time period. We propose a distributionally robust estimator that minimizes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Ruonan Xu , Xiye Yang

Inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in an observational study requires adjusting for observed baseline confounders to avoid bias. However, adjusting for all observed baseline covariates, when only a subset are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Stijn Vansteelandt

We consider inferring the causal effect of a treatment (intervention) on an outcome of interest in situations where there is potentially an unobserved confounder influencing both the treatment and the outcome. This is achievable by assuming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-15 Ruolin Meng , Ming-Yu Chung , Dhanajit Brahma , Ricardo Henao , Lawrence Carin

Difference-in-differences (DID) approaches are widely used for estimating causal effects with observational data before and after an intervention. DID traditionally estimates the average treatment effect among the treated after making a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Julia C. Thome , Andrew J. Spieker , Peter F. Rebeiro , Chun Li , Tong Li , Bryan E. Shepherd

No unmeasured confounding is often assumed in estimating treatment effects in observational data when using approaches such as propensity scores and inverse probability weighting. However, in many such studies due to the limitation of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-06 Rong Huang , Ronghui Xu , Parambir S. Dulai

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark

Estimating personalized effects of treatments is a complex, yet pervasive problem. To tackle it, recent developments in the machine learning (ML) literature on heterogeneous treatment effect estimation gave rise to many sophisticated, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Jonathan Crabbé , Alicia Curth , Ioana Bica , Mihaela van der Schaar

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

Medical journals have adhered to a reporting practice that seriously limits the usefulness of published trial findings. Medical decision makers commonly observe many patient covariates and seek to use this information to personalize…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Sheyu Li , Valentyn Litvin , Charles F. Manski

This research was motivated by studying anti-drug antibody (ADA) formation and its potential impact on long-term benefit of a biologic treatment in a randomized controlled trial, in which ADA status was not only unobserved in the control…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-13 Shengchun Kong , Dominik Heinzmann , Sabine Lauer , Tian Lu

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

Extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population requires ``generalizability'' or ``transportability'' assumptions, which state that randomized and non-randomized individuals are…

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