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Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…

Space Physics · Physics 2023-05-31 Pete Riley

Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-09-11 Timo Asikainen , Jani Mantere

The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-12-05 Mercedes T. Richards , Michael L. Rogers , Donald St. P. Richards

Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-19 G. Qin , S. -S. Wu

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 Yaming Yu , David A. van Dyk , Vinay L. Kashyap , C. Alex Young

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy

Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-16 Wei Guo , Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang

One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-10 Bidisha Dey , Anu Sreedevi , Bidya Binay Karak

Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-11-24 Valentina Penza , Francesco Berrilli , Luca Bertello , Matteo Cantoresi , Serena Criscuoli

The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-09 Scott W. McIntosh , Sandra C. Chapman , Robert J. Leamon , Ricky Egeland , Nicholas W. Watkins

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-10-08 S. -S. Wu , G. Qin

The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-29 Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang , Qi-Rong Jiao , Jin-Bin Cao

The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-02-03 M. Temmer

The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-15 V. M. S. Carrasco , J. M. Vaquero , M. C. Gallego

We introduce a new method for predicting sunspot number (SSN) that, based on successful back projections, can predict features of the SSN several solar cycles in advance. The method applies Fourier analysis to the annual SILSO SSN record,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-05 Ian Edmonds , Peter Killen

With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 B. Benson , W. D. Pan , A. Prasad , G. A. Gary , Q. Hu

Using neural networks as a prediction method, we attempt to demonstrate that forecasting of the Sun's sunspot time series can be extended to the spatial-temporal case. We employ this machine learning methodology to forecast not only in time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-03-08 Eurico Covas , Nuno Peixinho , Joao Fernandes

The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-12-08 Claudio Vita-Finzi

We study the variation in the magnetic field strength and the umbral intensity of sunspots during the declining phase of the solar cycle no.23 and in the beginning of cycle no.24. We analyze a sample of 183 sunspots observed from 1999 until…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-04 R. Rezaei , C. Beck , W. Schmidt

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. G. Tlatov
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