Related papers: Stochastic Volatily Models using Hamiltonian Monte…
Recently, we and several other authors have written about the possibilities of using stochastic approximation techniques for fitting variational approximations to intractable Bayesian posterior distributions. Naive implementations of…
Financial studies require volatility based models which provides useful insights on risks related to investments. Stochastic volatility models are one of the most popular approaches to model volatility in such studies. The asset returns…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a widely used algorithm for sampling from posterior distributions of complex Bayesian models. It can efficiently explore high-dimensional parameter spaces guided by simulated Hamiltonian flows. However, the…
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo are state-of-the-art methods for taking samples from high-dimensional distributions with a differentiable density function. To generate samples, they numerically integrate…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the static parameters in hidden Markov models with an intractable likelihood using ideas from approximate Bayesian computation. The static parameter…
We introduce a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) methodology based on a randomized selection of integration times, referred to as eHMC, where "e" stands for empirical. The approach relies on an offline calibration phase that leverages…
Hamiltonian Flow Monte Carlo(HFMC) methods have been implemented in engineering, biology and chemistry. HFMC makes large gradient based steps to rapidly explore the state space. The application of the Hamiltonian dynamics allows to estimate…
In this work we present a new and efficient Bayesian method for nonlinear three dimensional large scale structure inference. We employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler to obtain samples from a multivariate highly non-Gaussian…
Tuning the durations of the Hamiltonian flow in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (also called Hybrid Monte Carlo) (HMC) involves a tradeoff between computational cost and sampling quality, which is typically challenging to resolve in a satisfactory…
Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…
We consider a model of stochastic volatility which combines features of the multiplicative model for large volatilities and of the Heston model for small volatilities. The steady-state distribution in this model is a Beta Prime and is…
We analyze the accuracy and sample complexity of variational Monte Carlo approaches to simulate the dynamics of many-body quantum systems classically. By systematically studying the relevant stochastic estimators, we are able to: (i) prove…
Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with various forms of stochastic volatility have become increasingly popular in empirical macroeconomics. One main difficulty for practitioners is to choose the most suitable stochastic volatility…
In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…
This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology, which allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and model stock market crashes. Utilizing high frequency data, we estimate the daily…
The correlated stochastic volatility models constitute a natural extension of the Black and Scholes-Merton framework: here the volatility is not a constant, but a stochastic process correlated with the price log-return one. At present,…
The hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm (HMCA) is applied for Bayesian parameter estimation of the realized stochastic volatility (RSV) model. Using the 2nd order minimum norm integrator (2MNI) for the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation in the…
Efficient sampling from high-dimensional distributions is a challenging issue which is encountered in many large data recovery problems involving Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes. In this context, sampling using Hamiltonian dynamics is one…
Multimodality of the likelihood in Gaussian mixtures is a well-known problem. The choice of the initial parameter vector for the numerical optimizer may affect whether the optimizer finds the global maximum, or gets trapped in a local…