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At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-11 Holger Drees , Johan Segers , Michał Warchoł

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Mathias Raschke

Random multiplicative growth with redistribution generates stationary Pareto wealth tails in the Bouchaud-M\'ezard model, but assumes a fixed multiplicative noise intensity. This is restrictive for physical and financial growth processes,…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2026-05-20 Maxence Arutkin , Alexandre Vallée

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the tail index of distributions with heavy, Pareto-type tails for dependent data, that is of interest in the areas of finance, insurance, environmental monitoring and teletraffic analysis. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Stilian A Stoev , George Michailidis

This paper analyzes the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms' productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, dynasties have linear consumption functions…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-06-11 Davide Fiaschi , Matteo Marsili

The double Pareto distribution is a heavy-tailed distribution with a power-law tail, that is generated via geometric Brownian motion with an exponentially distributed observation time. In this study, we examine a modified model wherein the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-30 Ken Yamamoto , Takashi Bando , Hirokazu Yanagawa , Yoshihiro Yamazaki

Using public data (Forbes Global 2000) we show that the asset sizes for the largest global firms follow a Pareto distribution in an intermediate range, that is ``interrupted'' by a sharp cut-off in its upper tail, where it is totally…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-17 Davide Fiaschi , Imre Kondor , Matteo Marsili , Valerio Volpati

Recent work on random growth models with light-tailed Markov-modulated additive shocks has shown that irreducible modulation yields tail behavior resembling an exponential distribution. We show that with reducible modulation the tail…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-07 Brendan K. Beare , Alexis Akira Toda

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Hiroshi Horii , Raphael Lefevere , Takahiro Nemoto

Many economic models feature monotone Markov dynamics on state spaces that may be noncompact. Establishing existence, uniqueness, and stability of stationary distributions in such settings has required a patchwork of sufficient conditions,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Takashi Kamihigashi , John Stachurski

We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

The upper extremes of a Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution are known to exhibit under general conditions a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. More generally, if the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Johan Segers

The higher-end tail of the wealth distribution in India is studied using recently published lists of the wealth of richest Indians between the years 2002-4. The resulting rank distribution seems to imply a power-law tail for the wealth…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Sitabhra Sinha

This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-11-11 Alexander M. Chebotarev

We investigate the shape of the Italian personal income distribution using microdata from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth, made publicly available by the Bank of Italy for the years 1977--2002. We find that the upper tail of the…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-01-31 F. Clementi , M. Gallegati

Extreme events appear in many physics phenomena, whenever the probability distribution has a ''heavy tail'', differing very much from the equilibrium one. Most unusual are the cases of power-law (Pareto) probability distributions. Among…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-09-25 Mathieu Manceau , Kirill Yu. Spasibko , Gerd Leuchs , Radim Filip , Maria V. Chekhova

We consider a version of D. Price's model for the growth of a bibliographic network, where in each iteration a constant number of citations is randomly allocated according to a weighted combination of accidental (uniformly distributed) and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-08-31 Grzegorz Siudem , Przemysław Nowak , Marek Gagolewski

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva

A simple heuristic model, including the multiple exchanges between economic agents, is used to explain the mechanism of emerging and maintenance of social inequality in the market economy. The model allows calculating a density function of…

Biological Physics · Physics 2023-03-16 Vladimir Pokrovskii
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