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We study the time constant $\mu(e_{1})$ in first passage percolation on $\mathbb Z^{d}$ as a function of the dimension. We prove that if the passage times have finite mean, $$\lim_{d \to \infty} \frac{\mu(e_{1}) d}{\log d} = \frac{1}{2a},$$…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-29 Antonio Auffinger , Si Tang

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

Suppose that $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is a supercritical branching process in independent and identically distributed random environment. The right tail function of the scaled growth rate for $(Z_n)_{n\geq0}$ is studied. The upper bounds for…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Yinna Ye

We consider the first passage percolation model on $\mathbf{Z}^2$. In this model, we assign independently to each edge $e$ a passage time $t(e)$ with a common distribution $F$. Let $T(u,v)$ be the passage time from $u$ to $v$. In this…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-10 Yu Zhang

In this paper, we study some properties of optimal paths in the first passage percolation on $\Z^d$ and show the followings: (1) the number of optimal paths has an exponential growth if the distribution has an atom; (2) the means of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-31 Shuta Nakajima

We study the rate of convergence in the Shape Theorem of first-passage percolation, obtaining the precise asymptotic rate of decay for the probability of linear order deviations under a moment condition. Our results are stated for a given…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-06 Daniel Ahlberg

For $a>0$ and $b \geq 0$, let $\mathbb{G}_{a,b}$ be the subgraph of $\mathbb{Z}^2$ induced by the vertices between the first coordinate axis and the graph of the function $f = f_{a,b}(u) = a \log (1+u) + b \log(1+\log(1+u))$, $u \geq 0$. It…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-07 Michael Damron , Wai-Kit Lam

We study non-random fluctuation in the first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ and show that it diverges for any dimension. We also prove the divergence of the non-random shape fluctuation, which was conjectured in [Yu Zhang. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-26 Shuta Nakajima

We study numerically the distributions of the length $L$ of the longest increasing subsequence (LIS) for the two cases of random permutations and of one-dimensional random walks. Using sophisticated large-deviation algorithms, we are able…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-04-05 Jörn Börjes , Hendrik Schawe , Alexander K. Hartmann

Given a fixed graph H, what is the (exponentially small) probability that the number X_H of copies of H in the binomial random graph G_{n,p} is at least twice its mean? Studied intensively since the mid 1990s, this so-called infamous upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-09 Matas Šileikis , Lutz Warnke

We often rely on probabilistic measures -- e.g. event probability or expected time -- to characterize systems' safety. However, determining these quantities for extremely low-probability events is generally challenging, as standard safety…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Aitor R. Gomez , Manuela L. Bujorianu , Rafal Wisniewski

In this paper we explore first passage percolation (FPP) on the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $G_n(p_n)$, where each edge is given an independent exponential edge weight with rate 1. In the sparse regime, i.e., when $np_n\to \lambda>1,$ we…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-25 Shankar Bhamidi , Remco van der Hofstad , Gerard Hooghiemstra

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the correlation properties of a stationary Markovian stochastic processes affect the First Passage Time distribution. First Passage Time issues are a classical topic in stochastic processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-31 S. Micciché

This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-23 Cees de Valk

First passage phenomena arise across physics, biology, and finance when stochastic processes first reach a threshold, triggering downstream events. Examples include the irreversible exit from a domain, a biochemical reaction, a financial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-06 Maria R. D'Orsogna , Alan E. Lindsay , Thomas Hillen

First-passage percolation is the study of the metric space $(\mathbb{Z}^d,T)$, where $T$ is a random metric defined as the weighted graph metric using random edge-weights $(t_e)_{e\in \mathcal{E}^d}$ assigned to the nearest-neighbor edges…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Michael Damron , Pengfei Tang

In several applications, ultimately at the largest data, truncation effects can be observed when analysing tail characteristics of statistical distributions. In some cases truncation effects are forecasted through physical models such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-17 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Tom Reynkens

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

Consider the continuous greedy paths model: given a $d$-dimensional Poisson point process with positive marks interpreted as masses, let $\mathrm P(\ell)$ denote the maximum mass gathered by a path of length $\ell$ starting from the origin.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-04 Julien Verges

We study the critical behavior of the component sizes for the configuration model when the tail of the degree distribution of a randomly chosen vertex is a regularly-varying function with exponent $\tau-1$, where $\tau\in (3,4)$. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-22 Souvik Dhara , Remco van der Hofstad , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Sanchayan Sen