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We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

In biological, glassy, and active systems, various tracers exhibit Laplace-like, i.e., exponential, spreading of the diffusing packet of particles. The limitations of the central limit theorem in fully capturing the behaviors of such…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-22 Omer Hamdi , Stanislav Burov , Eli Barkai

A simple lemma bounds $\mathrm{s.d.}(T)/\mathbb{E} T$ for hitting times $T$ in Markov chains with a certain strong monotonicity property. We show how this lemma may be applied to several increasing set-valued processes. Our main result…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-22 David J. Aldous

In this paper, we study lower tail probabilities of the height function $\mathfrak{h}(M,N)$ of the stochastic six-vertex model. We introduce a novel combinatorial approach to demonstrate that the tail probabilities…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Sayan Das , Yuchen Liao , Matteo Mucciconi

It is well-known that large deviations of random walks driven by independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables are governed by the so-called principle of one large jump. We note that further subtleties hold for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-30 Harald Bernhard , Bikramjit Das

We consider a model of first passage percolation (FPP) where the nearest-neighbor edges of the standard two-dimensional Euclidean lattice are equipped with random variables. These variables are i.i.d.\, nonnegative, continuous, and have a…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Ujan Gangopadhyay

We study cluster sizes in supercritical $d$-dimensional inhomogeneous percolation models with long-range edges -- such as long-range percolation -- and/or heavy-tailed degree distributions -- such as geometric inhomogeneous random graphs…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Joost Jorritsma , Júlia Komjáthy , Dieter Mitsche

We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-30 Nina Gantert , Kavita Ramanan , Franz Rembart

Consider first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with passage times given by i.i.d. random variables with common distribution $F$. Let $t_\pi(u,v)$ be the time from $u$ to $v$ for a path $\pi$ and $t(u,v)$ the minimal time among all…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-30 Enrique D. Andjel , Maria Eulalia Vares

Consider the Totally Asymmetric Simple Exclusion Process (TASEP) on the integer lattice $ \mathbb{Z} $. We study the functional Large Deviations of the integrated current $ \mathsf{h}(t,x) $ under the hyperbolic scaling of space and time by…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Stefano Olla , Li-Cheng Tsai

Let $0<a<b<\infty$ be fixed scalars. Assign independently to each edge in the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^2$ the value $a$ with probability $p$ or the value $b$ with probability $1-p$. For all $u,v\in\mathbb{Z}^2$, let $T(u,v)$ denote the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 J. E. Yukich , Yu Zhang

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

In this paper, we study the maximal edge-traversal time (simply we call maximal weight hereafter) on the optimal paths in the first passage percolation for several edge distributions, including the Pareto and Weibull distributions. It is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-22 Shuta Nakajima

Following the recent investigations of Baik and Suidan in \cite{baik2005gcl} and Bodineau and Martin in \cite{bodineau2005upl}, we prove large deviation properties for a last-passage percolation model in $\mathbb{Z}^{2}_{+}$ whose paths are…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Jean-Paul Ibrahim

We consider first-passage percolation on the class of "high-dimensional" graphs that can be written as an iterated Cartesian product $G\square G \square \dots \square G$ of some base graph $G$ as the number of factors tends to infinity. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-19 Anders Martinsson

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 T. Mikosch , O. Wintenberger

We consider the FCFS G/G/n queue in the Halfin-Whitt regime, in the presence of heavy-tailed distributions (i.e. infinite variance). We prove that under minimal assumptions, i.e. only that processing times have finite 1 + epsilon moment and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-26 David A. Goldberg , Yuan Li

We consider first-passage percolation on the $d$ dimensional cubic lattice for $d \geq 2$; that is, we assign independently to each edge $e$ a nonnegative random weight $t_e$ with a common distribution and consider the induced random graph…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-21 Michael Damron , Naoki Kubota

We study a version of first passage percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ where the random passage times on the edges are replaced by contact times represented by random closed sets on $\mathbb{R}$. Similarly to the contact process without…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Benedikt Jahnel , Lukas Lüchtrath , Anh Duc Vu

We study large deviations for the time average of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process raised to an arbitrary power. We prove that beyond a critical value, large deviations are subexponential in time, with a non-convex rate function whose main…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Grégoire Ferré