Related papers: Bayesian prior elicitation and selection for extre…

Modelling multivariate tail dependence is one of the key challenges in extreme-value theory. Multivariate extremes are usually characterized using parametric models, some of which have simpler submodels at the boundary of their parameter…

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and…

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…

Accurate forecasting of risk is the key to successful risk management techniques. Using the largest stock index futures from twelve European bourses, this paper presents VaR measures based on their unconditional and conditional…

Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…

Bayesian variable selection often assumes normality, but the effects of model misspecification are not sufficiently understood. There are sound reasons behind this assumption, particularly for large $p$: ease of interpretation, analytical…

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Extreme quantile treatment effects (eQTEs) measure the causal impact of a treatment on the tails of an outcome distribution and are central for studying rare, high-impact events. Standard QTE methods often fail in extreme regimes due to…

Motivated by the prominence of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) as a measure for tail risk in settings affected by uncertainty, we develop a new formula for approximating CVaR based optimization objectives and their gradients from limited…

We propose a new Bayesian strategy for adaptation to smoothness in nonparametric models based on heavy tailed series priors. We illustrate it in a variety of settings, showing in particular that the corresponding Bayesian posterior…

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

Motivated by examples from genetic association studies, this paper considers the model selection problem in a general complex linear model system and in a Bayesian framework. We discuss formulating model selection problems and incorporating…

The extreme value index (EVI) characterizes the tail behavior of a distribution and is crucial for extreme value theory. Inference on the EVI is challenging due to data scarcity in the tail region. We propose a novel method for constructing…

In the study of heavy tail data, several models have been introduced. If the interest is in the tail of the distribution, block maxima or excess over thresholds are the typical approaches, wasting relevant information in the bulk of the…

Bayesian approach, as a useful tool for quantifying uncertainties, has been widely used for solving inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). One of the key difficulties for employing Bayesian approach for the issue is how…

Computer models, aiming at simulating a complex real system, are often calibrated in the light of data to improve performance. Standard calibration methods assume that the optimal values of calibration parameters are invariant to the model…

We obtain sharp large deviation estimates for exceedance probabilities in dependent triangular array threshold models with a diverging number of latent factors. The prefactors quantify how latent-factor dependence and tail geometry enter at…