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Assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding is an important step in observational studies, which typically estimate effects under the assumption that all confounders are measured. In this paper, we develop a sensitivity analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-04 Dan Soriano , Eli Ben-Michael , Peter J. Bickel , Avi Feller , Samuel D. Pimentel

One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Md Abdul Basit , Mahbub A. H. M. Latif , Abdus S Wahed

The identification of causal effects in observational studies typically relies on two standard assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. However, both assumptions are often questionable in practice: unconfoundedness is inherently…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Han Cui , Xinran Li

In observational studies, the identification of causal estimands depends on the no unmeasured confounding (NUC) assumption. As this assumption is not testable from observed data, sensitivity analysis plays an important role in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Md Abdul Basit , Mahbub A. H. M. Latif , Abdus S Wahed

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier

Observational studies provide invaluable opportunities to draw causal inference, but they may suffer from biases due to pretreatment difference between treated and control units. Matching is a popular approach to reduce observed covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Xinran Li

Causal inference necessarily relies upon untestable assumptions; hence, it is crucial to assess the robustness of obtained results to violations of identification assumptions. However, such sensitivity analysis is only occasionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

Weighting methods are popular tools for estimating causal effects; assessing their robustness under unobserved confounding is important in practice. In the following paper, we introduce a new set of sensitivity models called "variance-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Melody Huang , Samuel D. Pimentel

Bootstrapping is often applied to get confidence limits for semiparametric inference of a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters. Bootstrapping with replacement can be computationally expensive and problematic when…

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-19 Yen-Chi Chen , Y. Samuel Wang , Elena A. Erosheva

We present a method to analyze sensitivity of frequentist inferences to potential nonignorability of the missingness mechanism. Rather than starting from the selection model, as is typical in such analyses, we assume that the missingness…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-09 Heng Chen , Daniel F. Heitjan

Estimating nonlinear functionals of probability distributions from samples is a fundamental statistical problem. The "plug-in" estimator obtained by applying the target functional to the empirical distribution of samples is biased.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Florian Schäfer

We consider the problem where a modeller conducts sensitivity analysis of a model consisting of random input factors, a corresponding random output of interest, and a baseline probability measure. The modeller seeks to understand how the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-01 Silvana M. Pesenti

Causal inference with observational studies often suffers from unmeasured confounding, yielding biased estimators based on the unconfoundedness assumption. Sensitivity analysis assesses how the causal conclusions change with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Sizhu Lu , Peng Ding

The partially linear binary choice model can be used for estimating structural equations where nonlinearity may appear due to diminishing marginal returns, different life cycle regimes, or hectic physical phenomena. The inference procedure…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-01 Wenzheng Gao , Zhenting Sun

Marginal expected shortfall is unquestionably one of the most popular systemic risk measures. Studying its extreme behaviour is particularly relevant for risk protection against severe global financial market downturns. In this context,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli , Matteo Schiavone

Model misspecification is ubiquitous in data analysis because the data-generating process is often complex and mathematically intractable. Therefore, assessing estimation uncertainty and conducting statistical inference under a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Rong Li , Yichen Qin , Yang Li

We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Matteo Bonvini , Edward Kennedy , Valerie Ventura , Larry Wasserman
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