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Identifying and quantifying co-dependence between financial instruments is a key challenge for researchers and practitioners in the financial industry. Linear measures such as the Pearson correlation are still widely used today, although…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-29 Haochun Ma , Davide Prosperino , Alexander Haluszczynski , Christoph Räth

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Yarin Gal , Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We consider the nonparametric regression and the classification problems for $\psi$-weakly dependent processes. This weak dependence structure is more general than conditions such as, mixing, association, $\ldots$. A penalized estimation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-03 William Kengne , Modou Wade

We develop a class of rules spanning the range between quadratic discriminant analysis and naive Bayes, through a path of sparse graphical models. A group lasso penalty is used to introduce shrinkage and encourage a similar pattern of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-20 Ya Le , Trevor Hastie

Spatiotemporal time series are usually collected via monitoring sensors placed at different locations, which usually contain missing values due to various failures, such as mechanical damages and Internet outages. Imputing the missing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Baoyu Jing , Dawei Zhou , Kan Ren , Carl Yang

Sparse linear models are one of several core tools for interpretable machine learning, a field of emerging importance as predictive models permeate decision-making in many domains. Unfortunately, sparse linear models are far less flexible…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-03 Ryan Thompson , Amir Dezfouli , Robert Kohn

We consider the problem of inferring the causal structure from observational data, especially when the structure is sparse. This type of problem is usually formulated as an inference of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model. The linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-21 Kazuharu Harada , Hironori Fujisawa

That physiological oscillations of various frequencies are present in fMRI signals is the rule, not the exception. Herein, we propose a novel theoretical framework, spatio-temporal Granger causality, which allows us to more reliably and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-15 Qiang Luo , Wenlian Lu , Wei Cheng , Pedro A. Valdes-Sosa , Xiaotong Wen , Mingzhou Ding , Jianfeng Feng

Mixtures of matrix Gaussian distributions provide a probabilistic framework for clustering continuous matrix-variate data, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in various fields. Despite its widespread adoption and successful…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-21 Andrea Cappozzo , Alessandro Casa , Michael Fop

This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-17 Anna Zaremba , Tomaso Aste

I introduce a novel algorithm and accompanying Python library, named mlcausality, designed for the identification of nonlinear Granger causal relationships. This novel algorithm uses a flexible plug-in architecture that enables researchers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-13 Wojciech "Victor" Fulmyk

Within the statistical and machine learning literature, regularization techniques are often used to construct sparse (predictive) models. Most regularization strategies only work for data where all predictors are treated identically, such…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-16 Sander Devriendt , Katrien Antonio , Tom Reynkens , Roel Verbelen

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-10 Sergio Chibbaro , Cyril Furtlehner , Théo Marchetta , Andrei-Tiberiu Pantea , Davide Rossetti

We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-07 Alain Hecq , Luca Margaritella , Stephan Smeekes

Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-07 Matteo Farné , Angela Montanari

Penalized logistic regression is extremely useful for binary classification with large number of covariates (higher than the sample size), having several real life applications, including genomic disease classification. However, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-10 Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh , María Jaenada , Leandro Pardo

Sparse linear regression (SLR) is a well-studied problem in statistics where one is given a design matrix $X\in\mathbb{R}^{m\times n}$ and a response vector $y=X\theta^*+w$ for a $k$-sparse vector $\theta^*$ (that is, $\|\theta^*\|_0\leq…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Aparna Gupte , Neekon Vafa , Vinod Vaikuntanathan

In this paper, we study the nonparametric linear model, when the error process is a dependent Gaussian process. We focus on the estimation of the mean vector via a model selection approach. We first give the general theoretical form of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 Emmanuel Caron , Jérôme Dedecker , Bertrand Michel

We investigate a generalized framework to estimate a latent low-rank plus sparse tensor, where the low-rank tensor often captures the multi-way principal components and the sparse tensor accounts for potential model mis-specifications or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-15 Jian-Feng Cai , Jingyang Li , Dong Xia