Related papers: Asymptotic Analysis for Spectral Risk Measures Par…
Optimization under uncertainty and risk is indispensable in many practical situations. Our paper addresses stability of optimization problems using composite risk functionals which are subjected to measure perturbations. Our main focus is…
We study asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimator for a time inhomogeneous diffusion process given by a SDE $dX_t=\alpha b(t)X_t dt + \sigma(t) dB_t$, $t\in[0,T)$, with a parameter $\alpha\in R$, where $T\in(0,\infty]$ and…
We propose a copula-based measure of asymmetry between the lower and upper tail probabilities of bivariate distributions. The proposed measure has a simple form and possesses some desirable properties as a measure of asymmetry. The limit of…
Simultaneous occurrences of extreme events need not imply symmetric or reciprocal tail dependence. However, most existing measures of extremal dependence are inherently symmetric and hence often fail to capture directional influence in tail…
Data exhibiting heavy-tails in one or more dimensions is often studied using the framework of regular variation. In a multivariate setting this requires identifying specific forms of dependence in the data; this means identifying that the…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
The change-plane Cox model is a popular tool for the subgroup analysis of survival data. Despite the rich literature on this model, there has been limited investigation into the asymptotic properties of the estimators of the…
This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these…
Systemic risk measures play a crucial role in analyzing individual losses conditional on extreme system-wide disasters. In this paper, we provide a unified asymptotic treatment for systemic risk measures. First, we classify them into two…
We analyze the performance of RiskMetrics, a widely used methodology for measuring market risk. Based on the assumption of normally distributed returns, the RiskMetrics model completely ignores the presence of fat tails in the distribution…
We consider a model where the failure hazard function, conditional on a covariate $Z$ is given by $R(t,\theta^0|Z)=\eta\_{\gamma^0}(t)f\_{\beta^0}(Z)$, with $\theta^0=(\beta^0,\gamma^0)^\top\in \mathbb{R}^{m+p}$. The baseline hazard…
We present improved methods for calculating confidence intervals and $p$-values in situations where standard asymptotic approaches fail due to small sample sizes. We apply these techniques to a specific class of statistical model that can…
Given a large number of covariates $Z$, we consider the estimation of a high-dimensional parameter $\theta$ in an individualized linear threshold $\theta^T Z$ for a continuous variable $X$, which minimizes the disagreement between…
The proportional hazards model has been extensively used in many fields such as biomedicine to estimate and perform statistical significance testing on the effects of covariates influencing the survival time of patients. The classical…
We use Fourier analysis to access risk in financial products. With it we analyze price changes of e.g. stocks. Via Fourier analysis we scrutinize quantitatively whether the frequency of change is higher than a change in (conserved) company…
Two new test statistics are introduced to test the null hypotheses that the sampling distribution has an increasing hazard rate on a specified interval [0,a]. These statistics are empirical L_1-type distances between the isotonic estimates,…
In this paper, we find all possible asymptotic behaviours of the solutions of the second Painlev\'e equation $y''=2y^3+xy +\alpha$ as the parameter $\alpha\to\infty$ in the local region $x\ll\alpha^{2/3}$. We prove that these are asymptotic…
This paper applies the Extreme-Value (EV) Generalised Pareto distribution to the extreme tails of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses tail estimators from these…
We present extensive evidence that ``risk premium'' is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness and elicit an approximately linear relation between the…
Investigating the problem of setting control limits in the case of parameter uncertainty is more accessible when monitoring the variance because only one parameter has to be estimated. Simply ignoring the induced uncertainty frequently…