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A Markov process is registered. At random moment $\theta$ the distribution of observed sequence changes. Using probability maximizing approach the optimal stopping rule for detecting the change is identified. Some explicit solution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Wojciech Sarnowski , Krzysztof Szajowski

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-19 Shengjia Zhao , Christopher Yeh , Stefano Ermon

Suppose that at any stage of a statistical experiment a control variable $X$ that affects the distribution of the observed data $Y$ at this stage can be used. The distribution of $Y$ depends on some unknown parameter $\theta$, and we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-23 Andrey Novikov

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

We consider optimal stopping problems, in which a sequence of independent random variables is drawn from a known continuous density. The objective of such problems is to find a procedure which maximizes the expected reward; this is often…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Hugh Entwistle , Christopher Lustri , Georgy Sofronov

In this paper, we develop interval estimation methods for means of bounded random variables based on a sequential procedure such that the sampling is continued until the sample sum is no less than a prescribed threshold.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-03-07 Xinjia Chen

Group sequential designs (GSDs) are well established and the most commonly used adaptive design in confirmatory clinical trials with interim analyses. However, they remain underutilised, and their implementation involves unique theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Zhangyi He , Suzie Cro , Laurent Billot

Consider the problem of maximizing the probability of stopping with one of the two highest values in a Bernoulli random walk with arbitrary parameter $p$ and finite time horizon $n$. Allaart \cite{Allaart} proved that the optimal strategy…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-27 José A. Islas

Currently, an excessive amount of event data is being obtained in four-dimensional inelastic neutron-scattering experiments. A method for automatic bin-width optimization of multidimensional histograms has been developed and recently…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-19 Kensuke Muto , Hirotaka Sakamoto , Kenji Nagata , Taka-hisa Arima , Masato Okada

A/B testing refers to the task of determining the best option among two alternatives that yield random outcomes. We provide distribution-dependent lower bounds for the performance of A/B testing that improve over the results currently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-25 Emilie Kaufmann , Olivier Cappé , Aurélien Garivier

We consider the convergence time for solving the binary consensus problem using the interval consensus algorithm proposed by B\' en\' ezit, Thiran and Vetterli (2009). In the binary consensus problem, each node initially holds one of two…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-07 Moez Draief , Milan Vojnovic

Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

This paper considers the problem of minimizing the time average of a controlled stochastic process subject to multiple time average constraints on other related processes. The probability distribution of the random events in the system is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-12-20 Xiaohan Wei , Hao Yu , Michael J. Neely

Optimal stopping problems give rise to random distributions describing how many applicants the decision-maker will sample or interview before choosing one, a quantity sometimes referred to as the search time or process duration. This…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-13 Simon Demers

Given a stochastic state process $(X_t)_t$ and a real-valued submartingale cost process $(S_t)_t$, we characterize optimal stopping times $\tau$ that minimize the expectation of $S_\tau$ while realizing given initial and target…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-24 Nassif Ghoussoub , Young-Heon Kim , Aaron Zeff Palmer

We revisit the problem of statistical sequence matching initiated by Unnikrishnan (TIT 2015) and derive theoretical performance guarantees for sequential tests that have bounded expected stopping times. Specifically, in this problem, one is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Lin Zhou , Qianyun Wang , Yun Wei , Jingjing Wang

Given a standard Brownian motion $B^{\mu}=(B_t^{\mu})_{0\le t\le T}$ with drift $\mu \in \mathbb{R}$ and letting $S_t^{\mu}=\max_{0\le s\le t}B_s^{\mu}$ for $0\le t\le T$, we consider the optimal prediction problem: \[V=\inf_{0\le \tau \le…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 J. du Toit , G. Peskir

In pattern mining, the main challenge is the exponential explosion of the set of patterns. Typically, to solve this problem, a constraint for pattern selection is introduced. One of the first constraints proposed in pattern mining is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Aleksey Buzmakov , Sergei O. Kuznetsov , Amedeo Napoli

We consider the problem of finding a stopping time that minimises the $L^1$-distance to $\theta$, the time at which a L\'evy process attains its ultimate supremum. This problem was studied in [12] for a Brownian motion with drift and a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-08 Erik Baurdoux , Kees van Schaik

We derive a posteriori error estimators for an optimal control problem governed by a convection-reaction-diffusion equation; control constraints are also considered. We consider a family of low-order stabilized finite element methods to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-04-24 Alejandro Allendes , Enrique Otarola , Richard Rankin