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Reversibility is a key concept in Markov models and Master-equation models of molecular kinetics. The analysis and interpretation of the transition matrix encoding the kinetic properties of the model relies heavily on the reversibility…
Approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) offers the promise of more rapid sampling at the cost of more biased inference. Since standard MCMC diagnostics fail to detect these biases, researchers have developed computable Stein discrepancy…
We prove a central limit theorem for a general class of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms driven by sub-geometrically ergodic Markov kernels. We discuss in detail the special case of stochastic approximation. We use the result to…
We introduce $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation, a novel type of approximate probabilistic bisimulation for continuous-time Markov chains. In contrast to related notions, $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-bisimulation allows the use of different…
Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of…
The inverse problem of determining parameters in a model by comparing some output of the model with observations is addressed. This is a description for what hat to be done to use the Gauss-Markov-Kalman filter for the Bayesian estimation…
A popular method for likelihood-free inference is approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithms. These approximate the posterior using a population of particles, which are updated using Markov kernels. Several…
Computing the exact likelihood of data in large Bayesian networks consisting of thousands of vertices is often a difficult task. When these models contain many deterministic conditional probability tables and when the observed values are…
We provide a Lyapunov type bound in the multivariate central limit theorem for sums of independent, but not necessarily identically distributed random vectors. The error in the normal approximation is estimated for certain classes of sets,…
The rate of convergence of weighted kernel herding (WKH) and sequential Bayesian quadrature (SBQ), two kernel-based sampling algorithms for estimating integrals with respect to some target probability measure, is investigated. Under…
This paper investigates the approximation of Gaussian random variables in Banach spaces, focusing on the high-probability bounds for the approximation of Gaussian random variables using finitely many observations. We derive non-asymptotic…
In Bayesian optimization, accounting for the importance of the output relative to the input is a crucial yet challenging exercise, as it can considerably improve the final result but often involves inaccurate and cumbersome entropy…
Exponential random graph models are extremely difficult models to handle from a statistical viewpoint, since their normalising constant, which depends on model parameters, is available only in very trivial cases. We show how inference can…
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the…
We consider the Bayesian optimal filtering problem: i.e. estimating some conditional statistics of a latent time-series signal from an observation sequence. Classical approaches often rely on the use of assumed or estimated transition and…
Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…
Variational inference (VI) is widely used for approximate inference in Bayesian machine learning. In addition to this practical success, generalization bounds for variational inference and related algorithms have been developed, mostly…
We derive quantitative bounds in the Wasserstein distance for the approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Hawkes processes by a normally distributed random variable. In the case of deterministic and non-negative integrands,…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised…
Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples which summarise a probability distribution. A related task is choosing samples for estimating integrals using Bayesian quadrature. We show that the criterion minimised…