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We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Estevão Prado , Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods have revolutionised mathematical computation and enabled statistical inference within many previously intractable models. In this context, Hamiltonian dynamics have been proposed as an efficient way of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-09 Alessandro Barp , Francois-Xavier Briol , Anthony D. Kennedy , Mark Girolami

A novel algorithm for computing the action of a matrix exponential over a vector is proposed. The algorithm is based on a multilevel Monte Carlo method, and the vector solution is computed probabilistically generating suitable random paths…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Juan A. Acebron , Jose R. Herrero , Jose Monteiro

We examine the zero-temperature Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm as a tool for training a neural network by minimizing a loss function. We find that, as expected on theoretical grounds and shown empirically by other authors, Metropolis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-11 Stephen Whitelam , Viktor Selin , Ian Benlolo , Corneel Casert , Isaac Tamblyn

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Large scale optimization problems are ubiquitous in machine learning and data analysis and there is a plethora of algorithms for solving such problems. Many of these algorithms employ sub-sampling, as a way to either speed up the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-02-29 Farbod Roosta-Khorasani , Michael W. Mahoney

Although Monte Carlo path tracing is a simple and effective algorithm to synthesize photo-realistic images, it is often very slow to converge to noise-free results when involving complex global illumination. One of the most successful…

Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes that combine well calibrated uncertainty estimates with the high flexibility of multilayer models. One of the biggest challenges with these models is that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-13 Marton Havasi , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Juan José Murillo-Fuentes

Dynamically rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (DRHMC) is introduced as a computationally fast and easily implemented method for performing full Bayesian analysis in hierarchical statistical models. The method relies on introducing a modified…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-23 Tore Selland Kleppe

We propose to use deep neural networks for generating samples in Monte Carlo integration. Our work is based on non-linear independent components estimation (NICE), which we extend in numerous ways to improve performance and enable its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-04 Thomas Müller , Brian McWilliams , Fabrice Rousselle , Markus Gross , Jan Novák

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample from complex continuous distributions. However, a fundamental limitation of HMC is that it can not be applied to distributions with…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-10 Guangyao Zhou

Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian G. Wills , Sarah J. Johnson

The posterior over Bayesian neural network (BNN) parameters is extremely high-dimensional and non-convex. For computational reasons, researchers approximate this posterior using inexpensive mini-batch methods such as mean-field variational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Pavel Izmailov , Sharad Vikram , Matthew D. Hoffman , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-09 Mike Klaas , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet

We show how the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm can sometimes be speeded up by "splitting" the Hamiltonian in a way that allows much of the movement around the state space to be done at low computational cost. One context where this is…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-17 Babak Shahbaba , Shiwei Lan , Wesley O. Johnson , Radford M. Neal

A core problem in statistics and probabilistic machine learning is to compute probability distributions and expectations. This is the fundamental problem of Bayesian statistics and machine learning, which frames all inference as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-06 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

In this work we combine two distinct machine learning methodologies, sequential Monte Carlo and Bayesian experimental design, and apply them to the problem of inferring the dynamical parameters of a quantum system. We design the algorithm…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2012-10-10 Christopher E. Granade , Christopher Ferrie , Nathan Wiebe , D. G. Cory