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A technique for characterizing and correcting the linearity of radiometric instruments is known by the names the "flux-addition method" and the "combinatorial technique". In this paper, we develop a rigorous uncertainty quantification…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-22 Adam L. Pintar , Zachary H. Levine , Howard W. Yoon , Stephen E. Maxwell

Convolutional neural network (CNN) has achieved unprecedented success in image super-resolution tasks in recent years. However, the network's performance depends on the distribution of the training sets and degrades on out-of-distribution…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Aupendu Kar , Prabir Kumar Biswas

Uncertainty quantification for full-waveform inversion provides a probabilistic characterization of the ill-conditioning of the problem, comprising the sensitivity of the solution with respect to the starting model and data noise. This…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-04-20 Gabrio Rizzuti , Ali Siahkoohi , Philipp A. Witte , Felix J. Herrmann

For linear inverse problems with a large number of unknown parameters, uncertainty quantification remains a challenging task. In this work, we use Krylov subspace methods to approximate the posterior covariance matrix and describe efficient…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-22 Arvind K. Saibaba , Julianne Chung , Katrina Petroske

Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

Background: Radiation pneumonitis is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, machine learning models with radiomic features have improved radiation pneumonitis prediction by capturing spatial information. To further support…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Chanon Puttanawarut , Romen Samuel Wabina , Nat Sirirutbunkajorn

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan

We present an information-based uncertainty quantification method for general Markov Random Fields. Markov Random Fields (MRF) are structured, probabilistic graphical models over undirected graphs, and provide a fundamental unifying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Panagiota Birmpa , Markos A. Katsoulakis

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Erik Spånberg

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification for the deconvolution model \(Z = X + Y\), where \(X\) and \(Y\) are nonnegative random variables and the goal is to estimate the signal's distribution of \(X \sim F_0\) supported…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Francesco Gili , Geurt Jongbloed

Objective: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promise in automated cardiac magnetic resonance image segmentation. However, when using CNNs in a large real-world dataset, it is important to quantify segmentation…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Matthew Ng , Fumin Guo , Labonny Biswas , Steffen E. Petersen , Stefan K. Piechnik , Stefan Neubauer , Graham Wright

Accurate medical image segmentation is crucial for diagnosis and analysis. However, the models without calibrated uncertainty estimates might lead to errors in downstream analysis and exhibit low levels of robustness. Estimating the…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-09-16 Yanwu Yang , Xutao Guo , Yiwei Pan , Pengcheng Shi , Haiyan Lv , Ting Ma

Increased usage of automated tools like deep learning in medical image segmentation has alleviated the bottleneck of manual contouring. This has shifted manual labour to quality assessment (QA) of automated contours which involves detecting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Prerak Mody , Nicolas F. Chaves-de-Plaza , Chinmay Rao , Eleftheria Astrenidou , Mischa de Ridder , Nienke Hoekstra , Klaus Hildebrandt , Marius Staring

This study proposes a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties of constitutive relations inferred from noisy experimental data using inverse modelling. We focus on electrochemical systems in which charged species (e.g., Lithium ions) are…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-03-12 Athinthra Sethurajan , Sergey Krachkovskiy , Gillian Goward , Bartosz Protas

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification are crucial in computational cardiology, as they enable the construction of digital twins that faithfully replicate the behavior of physical patients. Robust and efficient mathematical…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-10-07 Matteo Salvador , Francesco Regazzoni , Luca Dede' , Alfio Quarteroni

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-04 Tapio Helin , Martin Burger

This paper studies the utility of techniques within uncertainty quantification, namely spectral projection and polynomial chaos expansion, in reducing sampling needs for characterizing acoustic metamaterial dispersion band responses given…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-22 Marvin Schmitt , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

This paper addresses the problem of summarizing the posterior distributions that typically arise, in a Bayesian framework, when dealing with signal decomposition problems with unknown number of components. Such posterior distributions are…

Computation · Statistics 2011-11-29 Alireza Roodaki , Julien Bect , Gilles Fleury