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We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-01 Markus Schöberl , Nicholas Zabaras , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Timo Kaiser , Thomas Norrenbrock , Bodo Rosenhahn

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

In spatial statistics, fast and accurate parameter estimation, coupled with a reliable means of uncertainty quantification, can be challenging when fitting a spatial process to real-world data because the likelihood function might be slow…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-31 Julia Walchessen , Amanda Lenzi , Mikael Kuusela

This paper concerns the study of optimal (supremum and infimum) uncertainty bounds for systems where the input (or prior) probability measure is only partially/imperfectly known (e.g., with only statistical moments and/or on a coarse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-02 Xingsheng Sun , Burigede Liu

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-25 Axel Brando , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Mauricio Ciprian , Roberto Maestre , Jordi Vitrià

Deep learning as a means to inferencing has proliferated thanks to its versatility and ability to approach or exceed human-level accuracy. These computational models have seemingly insatiable appetites for computational resources not only…

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

This article describes a multivariate polynomial regression method where the uncertainty of the input parameters are approximated with Gaussian distributions, derived from the central limit theorem for large weighted sums, directly from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-04 Peter Kovesarki , Ian C. Brock

Scientific Machine Learning is a new class of approaches that integrate physical knowledge and mechanistic models with data-driven techniques for uncovering governing equations of complex processes. Among the available approaches, Universal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-14 Nina Schmid , David Fernandes del Pozo , Willem Waegeman , Jan Hasenauer

The construction of efficient methods for uncertainty quantification in kinetic equations represents a challenge due to the high dimensionality of the models: often the computational costs involved become prohibitive. On the other hand,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-03 Giacomo Dimarco , Liu Liu , Lorenzo Pareschi , Xueyu Zhu

In this paper, we propose a local model reduction approach for subsurface flow problems in stochastic and highly heterogeneous media. To guarantee the mass conservation, we consider the mixed formulation of the flow problem and aim to solve…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-23 Yiran Wang , Eric Chung , Shubin Fu

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Jinxu Lin , Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-08 Dennis Ulmer , Christian Hardmeier , Jes Frellsen

We propose a multiscale approach for an elliptic multiscale setting with general unstructured diffusion coefficients that is able to achieve high-order convergence rates with respect to the mesh parameter and the polynomial degree. The…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-09-03 Roland Maier

While Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) achieve state-of-the-art accuracy in various applications, they often fall short in accurately estimating their predictive uncertainty and, in turn, fail to recognize when these predictions may be wrong.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Ankur Mallick , Chaitanya Dwivedi , Bhavya Kailkhura , Gauri Joshi , T. Yong-Jin Han

Uncertainty quantification based on generalized polynomial chaos has been used in many applications. It has also achieved great success in variation-aware design automation. However, almost all existing techniques assume that the parameters…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-06-21 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

Quantifying the predictive uncertainty emerged as a possible solution to common challenges like overconfidence or lack of explainability and robustness of deep neural networks, albeit one that is often computationally expensive. Many…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-19 Steven Landgraf , Markus Hillemann , Theodor Kapler , Markus Ulrich

This contribution presents a hierarchical multigrid approach for the solution of large-scale finite cell problems on both uniform grids and multi-level hp-discretizations. The proposed scheme leverages the hierarchical nature of the basis…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-08 John Jomo , Oguz Oztoprak , Frits de Prenter , Nils Zander , Stefan Kollmannsberger , Ernst Rank