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Data collected from arrays of sensors are essential for informed decision-making in various systems. However, the presence of anomalies can compromise the accuracy and reliability of insights drawn from the collected data or information…

Applications · Statistics 2024-03-19 Katie Buchhorn , Kerrie Mengersen , Edgar Santos-Fernandez , James McGree

Current astrophysical models of the interstellar medium assume that small scale variation and noise can be modelled as Gaussian random fields or simple transformations thereof, such as lognormal. We use topological methods to investigate…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-22 Robin Henderson , Irina Makarenko , Paul Bushby , Andrew Fletcher , Anvar Shukurov

We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian graphical model in the case where the observations come from two dependent groups sharing the same variables. We focus on a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models specifically suited for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-16 Alberto Roverato , Dung Ngoc Nguyen

Consistent experiment data are crucial to adjust parameters of physics models and to determine best estimates of observables. However, often experiment data are not consistent due to unrecognized systematic errors. Standard methods of…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2018-03-05 Georg Schnabel

We present a principled Bayesian framework for signal reconstruction, in which the signal is modelled by basis functions whose number (and form, if required) is determined by the data themselves. This approach is based on a Bayesian…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-23 Edward Higson , Will Handley , Michael Hobson , Anthony Lasenby

Bayesian deep learning all too often underfits so that the Bayesian prediction is less accurate than a simple point estimate. Uncertainty quantification then comes at the cost of accuracy. For linearized models, the null space of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-23 Marco Miani , Hrittik Roy , Søren Hauberg

Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models handle geographical dependence through a spatially varying coefficient model and have been widely used in applied science, but its general Bayesian extension is unclear because it involves a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Yang Liu , Robert J. B. Goudie

Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Klaus Mosegaard , Andrew Curtis

Well-established methods for the solution of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) typically struggle in problems with high-dimensional inputs/outputs. Such difficulties are only amplified in large-scale applications where even…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Constantin Grigo , Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

Due to spatial dependence -- often characterized as complex and non-linear -- model misspecification is a prevalent and critical issue in spatial data analysis and prediction. As the data, and thus model performance, is heterogeneous,…

We consider the problem of boundary detection for areal data, focusing on situations where for each areal unit multiple observations are available. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the area-specific population…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Matteo Gianella , Mario Beraha , Alessandra Guglielmi

Many high dimensional integrals can be reduced to the problem of finding the relative measures of two sets. Often one set will be exponentially larger than the other, making it difficult to compare the sizes. A standard method of dealing…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-19 Mark Huber , Sarah Schott

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Adapting large-scale foundation models to new domains with limited supervision remains a fundamental challenge due to latent distribution mismatch, unstable optimization dynamics, and miscalibrated uncertainty propagation. This paper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Aueaphum Aueawatthanaphisut , Kuepon Auewattanapisut

When the target variable exhibits a semicontinuous behaviour (i.e. a point mass in a single value and a continuous distribution elsewhere) parametric `two-part regression models' have been extensively used and investigated. In this paper, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-14 Emanuela Dreassi , Emilia Rocco

A lower bound is an important tool for predicting the performance that an estimator can achieve under a particular statistical model. Bayesian bounds are a kind of such bounds which not only utilizes the observation statistics but also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-02 Shuo Tang , Gerald LaMountain , Tales Imbiriba , Pau Closas

This paper devises a fully Bayesian sample size determination method for hierarchical model-based small area estimation with a decision risk approach. A new loss function specified around a desired maximum posterior variance target…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-27 Peter Dutey-Magni

With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial locations and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-23 Sudipto Banerjee

Bayesian latent space models offer a principled approach to network representation, but rely on correct specification of both geometry and link function. Real-world networks often violate these assumptions, exhibiting geometric mismatch and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Aldric Labarthe

interpretable, and well understood models that are routinely employed even though, as is revealed through prior and posterior predictive checks, these can poorly characterise the spatial heterogeneity in the underlying process of interest.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-08 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Michael D. Kaminski , Ba-Hien Tran , Maurizio Filippone , Noel Cressie
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