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When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-09 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

We derive the class of normalized generalized Gamma processes from Poisson-Kingman models (Pitman, 2003) with tempered alfa-stable mixing distribution. Relying on this construction it can be shown that in Bayesian nonparametrics, results on…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-14 Annalisa Cerquetti

In this paper we obtain the limit distribution for partial sums with a random number of terms following a class of mixed Poisson distributions. The resulting weak limit is a mixing between a normal distribution and an exponential family,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-08 Wagner Barreto-Souza , Gabriela Oliveira , Roger W. C. Silva

In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-26 Aojun Li , Keying Ye , Min Wang

Posterior predictive p-values are a common approach to Bayesian model-checking. This article analyses their frequency behaviour, that is, their distribution when the parameters and the data are drawn from the prior and the model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Patrick Rubin-Delanchy , Daniel John Lawson

The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Vladimir Spokoiny , Maxim Panov

We introduce a strategy for specifying informative inverse-gamma (IG) priors for variance components in Bayesian multilevel models (MLMs), derived via transformations from chi-square to gamma to inverse-gamma distributions. A Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Liu Liu

Recent works have shown an interest in investigating the frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear models under sparsity constraints. However, there exists a gap in the literature regarding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Marion Naveau , Maud Delattre , Laure Sansonnet

Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-11 Gabriel Missael Barco , Alexandre Adam , Connor Stone , Yashar Hezaveh , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

The Poisson-gamma state space (PGSS) models have been utilized in the analysis of non-negative integer-valued time series to sequentially obtain closed form filtering and predictive densities. In this study, we show the underlying mechanics…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Kaoru Irie , Tevfik Aktekin

We consider full Bayesian inference in the multivariate normal mean model in the situation that the mean vector is sparse. The prior distribution on the vector of means is constructed hierarchically by first choosing a collection of nonzero…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-07 Ismaël Castillo , Aad van der Vaart

We consider the asymptotic behavior of posterior distributions if the model is misspecified. Given a prior distribution and a random sample from a distribution $P_0$, which may not be in the support of the prior, we show that the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 B. J. K. Kleijn , A. W. van der Vaart

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

In practice, it is desired to have estimates that are invariant under reparameterization. The invariance property of the estimators helps to formulate a unified solution to the underlying estimation problem. In robust Bayesian analysis, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-24 Mohammad Jafari Jozani , Nahid Jafari Tabrizi

We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-18 Fengshuo Zhang , Chao Gao

This paper aims at developing a quasi-Bayesian analysis of the nonparametric instrumental variables model, with a focus on the asymptotic properties of quasi-posterior distributions. In this paper, instead of assuming a distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Kengo Kato

Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-12-29 Clément Elvira , Pierre Chainais , Nicolas Dobigeon

The prediction of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate normal distribution is important in the multivariate analysis. We investigated Bayesian predictive distributions for Wishart distributions under the Kullback-Leibler…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Hidemasa Oda , Fumiyasu Komaki