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We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-17 Gareth W. Peters , Geoff R. Hosack , Keith R. Hayes

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Bayesian change-point detection, together with latent variable models, allows to perform segmentation over high-dimensional time-series. We assume that change-points lie on a lower-dimensional manifold where we aim to infer subsets of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Lorena Romero-Medrano , Pablo Moreno-Muñoz , Antonio Artés-Rodríguez

A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Christian Schäfer , Nicolas Chopin

Despite recent advances, sampling-based inference for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) remains a significant challenge in probabilistic deep learning. While sampling-based approaches do not require a variational distribution assumption,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Emanuel Sommer , Jakob Robnik , Giorgi Nozadze , Uros Seljak , David Rügamer

Many recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers leverage continuous dynamics to define a transition kernel that efficiently explores a target distribution. In tandem, a focus has been on devising scalable variants that subsample the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-03 Yi-An Ma , Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox

We propose here some new sampling algorithms for Path Sampling in the case when stochastic dynamics are used. In particular, we present a new proposal function for equilibrium sampling of paths with a Monte-Carlo dynamics (the so-called…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Gabriel Stoltz

Real-world autonomous systems operate under uncertainty about both their pose and dynamics. Autonomous control systems must simultaneously perform estimation and control tasks to maintain robustness to changing dynamics or modeling errors.…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-08-03 Patrick Slade , Zachary N. Sunberg , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Expectation maximization (EM) is a technique for estimating maximum-likelihood parameters of a latent variable model given observed data by alternating between taking expectations of sufficient statistics, and maximizing the expected log…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-10 Donna Henderson , Gerton Lunter

Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) has the potential to produce high-quality Markov chain Monte Carlo-output even for very challenging target distributions. To this end, a symmetric positive definite scaling matrix for RMHMC,…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-17 Tore Selland Kleppe

Equality-constrained models naturally arise in problems in which measurements are taken at different levels of resolution. The challenge in this setting is that the models usually induce a joint distribution which is intractable. Resorting…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-28 Shenggang Hu , Hongsheng Dai , Fanlin Meng , Louis Aslett , Murray Pollock , Gareth O. Roberts

We explore a self-learning Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on the Adversarial Non-linear Independent Components Estimation Monte Carlo, which utilizes generative models and artificial neural networks. We apply this method to the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2021-01-06 Matija Medvidovic , Juan Carrasquilla , Lauren E. Hayward , Bohdan Kulchytskyy

We propose a new sampling algorithm combining two quite powerful ideas in the Markov chain Monte Carlo literature -- adaptive Metropolis sampler and two-stage Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The proposed sampling method will be particularly…

Computation · Statistics 2021-01-05 Anirban Mondal , Kai Yin , Abhijit Mandal

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-18 Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness , Johan Dahlin

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used to simulate complex molecular systems, but standard approaches suffer from metastability. Lately, the use of non-local proposal updates in a collective-variable (CV) space has been proposed in several…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-20 Christoph Schönle , Davide Carbone , Marylou Gabrié , Tony Lelièvre , Gabriel Stoltz

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-04 Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Roman Garnett , Philipp Hennig , Stephen J. Roberts

With the recently increased interest in probabilistic models, the efficiency of an underlying sampler becomes a crucial consideration. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is one popular option for models of this kind. Performance of the method,…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are popular samplers for approximate inference, but they are generally biased. We show that many recent versions of these methods (e.g. Chen et al. (2014)) cannot be corrected using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Vincent Fortuin

Deterministic dynamics is an essential part of many MCMC algorithms, e.g. Hybrid Monte Carlo or samplers utilizing normalizing flows. This paper presents a general construction of deterministic measure-preserving dynamics using autonomous…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-21 Kirill Neklyudov , Roberto Bondesan , Max Welling