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Some statistical models are specified via a data generating process for which the likelihood function cannot be computed in closed form. Standard likelihood-based inference is then not feasible but the model parameters can be inferred by…

Computation · Statistics 2015-02-20 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander , Ritabrata Dutta , Samuel Kaski

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Savas Dayanik , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Chen Tang , Jianyu Chen , Masayoshi Tomizuka

We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-07-01 Steven Holtzen , Sebastian Junges , Marcell Vazquez-Chanlatte , Todd Millstein , Sanjit A. Seshia , Guy Van Den Broeck

Employing model predictive control to systems with unbounded, stochastic disturbances poses the challenge of guaranteeing safety, i.e., repeated feasibility and stability of the closed-loop system. Especially, there are no strict repeated…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-10-11 Maik Pfefferkorn , Rolf Findeisen

Verifying quantum systems has attracted a lot of interest in the last decades.In this paper, we study the quantitative model-checking of quantum continuous-time Markov chains (quantum CTMCs). The branching-time properties of quantum CTMCs…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Ming Xu , Jingyi Mei , Ji Guan , Yuxin Deng , Nengkun Yu

A statistical, path-dependent framework to describe time-dependent macroscopic theories using the Principle of Maximum Caliber is presented. By means of this procedure, it is possible to infer predictive non-equilibrium statistical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-20 Ignacio Tapia , Gonzalo Gutiérrez , Sergio Davis

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Hany Abdulsamad , Ángel F. García-Fernández , Simo Särkkä

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

Bayesian computational algorithms tend to scale poorly as data size increases. This has motivated divide-and-conquer-based approaches for scalable inference. These divide the data into subsets, perform inference for each subset in parallel,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-22 Rihui Ou , Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , David Dunson

There has been a tremendous growth in publicly available digital video footage over the past decade. This has necessitated the development of new techniques in computer vision geared towards efficient analysis, storage and retrieval of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-09-22 Vinay Jethava

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-27 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-03-19 Richard G. Everitt

Markov chains provide a foundational framework for modeling sequential stochastic processes, with the transition probability matrix characterizing the dynamics of state evolution. While classical estimation methods such as maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-11 Agamani Saha , Souvik Roy

Reliability in terms of functional properties from the safety-liveness spectrum is an indispensable requirement of low-level operating-system (OS) code. However, with evermore complex and thus less predictable hardware, quantitative and…

Probabilistic programs are a powerful and convenient approach to formalise distributions over system executions. A classical verification problem for probabilistic programs is temporal inference: to compute the likelihood that the execution…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-02-21 Kazuki Watanabe , Sebastian Junges , Jurriaan Rot , Ichiro Hasuo

Biological systems are often modeled as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with time-invariant parameters. However, cell signaling events or pharmacological interventions may alter the cellular state and induce multi-mode…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-28 Bing Liu

As control engineering methods are applied to increasingly complex systems, data-driven approaches for system identification appear as a promising alternative to physics-based modeling. While the Bayesian approaches prevalent for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-07 Robert Lefringhausen , Supitsana Srithasan , Armin Lederer , Sandra Hirche

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet