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Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a formalism to quantify and calibrate uncertainty in deep learning. Current inference approaches for BNNs often resort to few-sample estimation for scalability, which can harm predictive performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Zhe Zeng , Guy Van den Broeck

Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

To advance the transparency of learning machines such as Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), the field of Explainable AI (XAI) was established to provide interpretations of DNNs' predictions. While different explanation techniques exist, a popular…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide principled uncertainty quantification but suffer from substantial computational and memory overhead compared to deterministic networks. While quantization techniques have successfully reduced resource…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Hendrik Borras , Yong Wu , Bernhard Klein , Holger Fröning

Variational inference provides approximations to the computationally intractable posterior distribution in Bayesian networks. A prominent medical application of noisy-or Bayesian network is to infer potential diseases given observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-23 Yusheng Xie , Nan Du , Wei Fan , Jing Zhai , Weicheng Zhu

As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Patrick McClure , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

There is a fundamental limitation in the prediction performance that a machine learning model can achieve due to the inevitable uncertainty of the prediction target. In classification problems, this can be characterized by the Bayes error,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Takashi Ishida , Ikko Yamane , Nontawat Charoenphakdee , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama

Bayesian inference for neural networks, or Bayesian deep learning, has the potential to provide well-calibrated predictions with quantified uncertainty and robustness. However, the main hurdle for Bayesian deep learning is its computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-07 Sanket Jantre , Nathan M. Urban , Xiaoning Qian , Byung-Jun Yoon

We consider adversarial training of deep neural networks through the lens of Bayesian learning, and present a principled framework for adversarial training of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with certifiable guarantees. We rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-24 Matthew Wicker , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane , Zhoutong Chen , Zheng Zhang , Marta Kwiatkowska

Efficiently quantifying predictive uncertainty in medical images remains a challenge. While Bayesian neural networks (BNN) offer predictive uncertainty, they require substantial computational resources to train. Although Bayesian…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Zeinab Abboud , Herve Lombaert , Samuel Kadoury

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Laplace approximations are classic, computationally lightweight means for constructing Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). As in other approximate BNNs, one cannot necessarily expect the induced predictive uncertainty to be calibrated. Here we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Agustinus Kristiadi , Matthias Hein , Philipp Hennig

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

The usual figure of merit characterizing the performance of neural networks applied to problems in the quantum domain is their accuracy, being the probability of a correct answer on a previously unseen input. Here we append this parameter…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-12-29 Jan Wasilewski , Tomasz Paterek , Karol Horodecki

Approximate Bayesian inference for neural networks is considered a robust alternative to standard training, often providing good performance on out-of-distribution data. However, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with high-fidelity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Pavel Izmailov , Patrick Nicholson , Sanae Lotfi , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian Neural Networks provide a principled framework for uncertainty quantification by modeling the posterior distribution of network parameters. However, exact posterior inference is computationally intractable, and widely used…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Alfredo Reichlin , Miguel Vasco , Danica Kragic

Although deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a number of vision tasks, generalization over high dimensional multi-modal data, and reliable predictive uncertainty estimation are still active areas of research.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Samarth Sinha , Homanga Bharadhwaj , Anirudh Goyal , Hugo Larochelle , Animesh Garg , Florian Shkurti

Although deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success due to their powerful expressiveness, most models struggle to meet practical requirements for uncertainty estimation. Concurrently, the entangled nature of deep neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Xinyue Hu , Zhibin Duan , Bo Chen , Mingyuan Zhou