Related papers: Conditional fiducial models
Traditional statistical learning theory relies on the assumption that data are identically and independently distributed (i.i.d.). However, this assumption often does not hold in many real-life applications. In this survey, we explore…
The development of statistical methods for valid and efficient probabilistic inference without prior distributions has a long history. Fisher's fiducial inference is perhaps the most famous of these attempts. We argue that, despite its…
We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that…
Causal Models are like Dependency Graphs and Belief Nets in that they provide a structure and a set of assumptions from which a joint distribution can, in principle, be computed. Unlike Dependency Graphs, Causal Models are models of…
In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…
Causal discovery from i.i.d. observational data is known to be generally ill-posed. We demonstrate that if we have access to the distribution {induced} by a structural causal model, and additional data from (in the best case) \textit{only…
Valid inference after model selection is currently a very active area of research. The polyhedral method, pioneered by Lee, et al. (2016), allows for valid inference after model selection if the model selection event can be described by…
A fundamental class of inferential problems are those characterised by there having been a substantial degree of pre-data (or prior) belief that the value of a model parameter $\theta_j$ was equal or lay close to a specified value…
Statistical system models provide the basis for the examination of various sorts of distributions. Classification distributions are a very common and versatile form of statistics in e.g. real economic, social, and IT systems. The…
Prediction invariance of causal models under heterogeneous settings has been exploited by a number of recent methods for causal discovery, typically focussing on recovering the causal parents of a target variable of interest. Existing…
We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…
We develop factor copula models for analysing the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric…
Copula models are flexible tools to represent complex structures of dependence for multivariate random variables. According to Sklar's theorem (Sklar, 1959), any d-dimensional absolutely continuous density can be uniquely represented as the…
How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…
Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the…
We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…
The inferential model (IM) approach, like fiducial and its generalizations, depends on a representation of the data-generating process. Here, a particular variation on the IM construction is considered, one based on generalized…
Distributional robustness is a central goal of prediction algorithms due to the prevalent distribution shifts in real-world data. The prediction model aims to minimize the worst-case risk among a class of distributions, a.k.a., an…
We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…
Existing approaches to causal discovery often rely on restrictive modeling assumptions that limit their applicability in real-world settings, particularly when data are heavy-tailed or contain a mixture of discrete and continuous variables.…