Related papers: Estimating Under Five Mortality in Space and Time …
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
Methods are lacking to handle the problem of survival analysis in the presence of an interval-censored covariate, specifically the case in which the conditional hazard of the primary event of interest depends on the occurrence of a…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…
Disease mapping analyses the distribution of several disease outcomes within a territory. Primary goals include identifying areas with unexpected changes in mortality rates, studying the relation among multiple diseases, and dividing the…
The increasing availability of complex survey data, and the continued need for estimates of demographic and health indicators at a fine spatial and temporal scale, which leads to issues of data sparsity, has led to the need for…
Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for…
Fatalities resulting from violence in armed conflict have long been a significant public health issue in Ethiopia. Despite the severity of this problem, more comprehensive quantitative scientific studies need to be conducted to elucidate…
Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
This paper considers a wide family of semiparametric repeated measures regression models, in which the main interest is on estimating population-level quantities such as mean, variance, probabilities etc. Examples of our framework include…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…