Related papers: Early prediction of the duration of protests using…
Social media has emerged to be a popular platform for people to express their viewpoints on political protests like the Arab Spring. Millions of people use social media to communicate and mobilize their viewpoints on protests. Hence, it is…
The right to protest is perceived as one of the primary civil rights. Citizens participate in mass demonstrations to express themselves and exercise their democratic rights. However, because of the large number of participants, protests may…
The CLEF 2019 ProtestNews Lab tasks participants to identify text relating to political protests within larger corpora of news data. Three tasks include article classification, sentence detection, and event extraction. I apply multitask…
The effect that different police protest management methods have on protesters' physical and mental trauma is still not well understood and is a matter of debate. In this paper, we take a two-pronged approach to gain insight into this…
With public information becoming widely accessible and shared on today's web, greater insights are possible into crowd actions by citizens and non-state actors such as large protests and cyber activism. We present efforts to predict the…
Reasoning models improve their problem-solving ability through inference-time scaling, allocating more compute via longer token budgets. Identifying which reasoning traces are likely to succeed remains a key opportunity: reliably predicting…
The combination of large open data sources with machine learning approaches presents a potentially powerful way to predict events such as protest or social unrest. However, accounting for uncertainty in such models, particularly when using…
Protest activity, a constitutionally protected right in the United States under the First Amendment, serves as a key tool for individuals with limited individual influence to unite collectively and amplify their impact. Despite its legal…
The detection of events from online social networks is a recent, evolving field that attracts researchers from across a spectrum of disciplines and domains. Here we report a time-series analysis for predicting events. In particular, we…
Forecasting events like civil unrest movements, disease outbreaks, financial market movements and government elections from open source indicators such as news feeds and social media streams is an important and challenging problem. From the…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and…
A vast amount of textual web streams is influenced by events or phenomena emerging in the real world. The social web forms an excellent modern paradigm, where unstructured user generated content is published on a regular basis and in most…
Successful attempts to predict judges' votes shed light into how legal decisions are made and, ultimately, into the behavior and evolution of the judiciary. Here, we investigate to what extent it is possible to make predictions of a…
Since the events of the Arab Spring, there has been increased interest in using social media to anticipate social unrest. While efforts have been made toward automated unrest prediction, we focus on filtering the vast volume of tweets to…
Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has…
In democracies like India, people are free to express their views and demands. Sometimes this causes situations of civil unrest such as protests, rallies, and marches. These events may be disruptive in nature and are often held without…
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate…
While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically…
Riots and protests, if gone out of control, can cause havoc in a country. We have seen examples of this, such as the BLM movement, climate strikes, CAA Movement, and many more, which caused disruption to a large extent. Our motive behind…
Social media is transforming various aspects of offline life, from everyday decisions such as dining choices to the progression of conflicts. In this study, we propose a coupled modelling framework with an online social network layer to…