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The liberalization of electricity markets and the development of renewable energy sources has led to new challenges for decision makers. These challenges are accompanied by an increasing uncertainty about future electricity price movements.…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-12 Florian Ziel , Rick Steinert

Pricing decisions of companies require an understanding of the causal effect of a price change on the demand. When real-life pricing experiments are infeasible, data-driven decision-making must be based on alternative data sources such as…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-03 Lauri Valkonen , Santtu Tikka , Jouni Helske , Juha Karvanen

We present a parallel algorithm that computes the ask and bid prices of an American option when proportional transaction costs apply to the trading of the underlying asset. The algorithm computes the prices on recombining binomial trees,…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2011-10-12 Nan Zhang , Alet Roux , Tomasz Zastawniak

An explicit formula is derived for the value of weak information in a discrete time model that works for a wide range of utility functions including the logarithmic and power utility. We assume a complete market with a finite number of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-29 Ayelet Amiran , Fabrice Baudoin , Skylyn Brock , Berend Coster , Ryan Craver , Ugonna Ezeaka , Phanuel Mariano , Mary Wishart

This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated L\'{e}vy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of L\'{e}vy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-25 Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen , Fred Espen Benth , Almut E. D. Veraart

We explore nature of price formation in financial markets and develop a theory of bid and ask price dynamics in which the two prices form due to quantum-chaotic interaction between buy and sell orders. In this model bid and ask prices are…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-15 Jack Sarkissian

The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-01-30 Thibaut Théate , Antonio Sutera , Damien Ernst

The use of kinetic modelling based on partial differential equations for the dynamics of stock price formation in financial markets is briefly reviewed. The importance of behavioral aspects in market booms and crashes and the role of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-07-12 Dario Maldarella , Lorenzo Pareschi

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-13 Bartosz Uniejewski , Florian Ziel

We consider the thermodynamic approach to the description of economic systems and processes. The first and second laws of thermodynamics as applied to economic systems are derived and analyzed. It is shown that there is a deep analogy…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-03 Sergey Rashkovskiy

The problem of heat system pricing is considered. A direct extension of locational marginal prices (LMP) in electricity markets to heat systems may lead to revenue inadequate issues. The underlying reason for such a problem is that, unlike…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-08-18 Xinyi Yi , Ye Guo , Hongbin Sun

This paper investigates large fluctuations of Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) in wholesale energy markets caused by volatile renewable generation profiles. Specifically, we study events of the form $\mathbb{P} \Big ( \mathbf{LMP} \notin…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-07 Tommaso Nesti , John Moriarty , Alessandro Zocca , Bert Zwart

We study a class of iterative combinatorial auctions which can be viewed as subgradient descent methods for the problem of pricing bundles to balance supply and demand. We provide concrete convergence rates for auctions in this class,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Jacob Abernethy , Sébastien Lahaie , Matus Telgarsky

Controllability and observability energy functions play a fundamental role in model order reduction and are inherently connected to optimal control problems. For linear dynamical systems the energy functions are known to be quadratic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-11 Linus Balicki , Serkan Gugercin

Wind power producers (WPPs) participating in short-term power markets face significant imbalance costs due to their non-dispatchable and variable production. While some WPPs have a large enough market share to influence prices with their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Shobhit Singhal , Marta Fochesato , Liviu Aolaritei , Florian Dörfler

Based on the concept of self-decomposability, we extend some recent multivariate L\'evy models built using multivariate subordination with the aim of capturing situations in which a sudden event in one market is propagated onto related…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-31 Matteo Gardini , Piergiacomo Sabino , Emanuela Sasso

Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

In recent years, there have been a lot of sharp changes in the oil price. These rapid changes cause the traditional models to fail in predicting the price behavior. The main reason for the failure of the traditional models is that they…

General Economics · Economics 2018-08-14 Sina Aghaei , Amirreza Safari Langroudi , Masoud Fekri

Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Ciaran O'Connor , Mohamed Bahloul , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

In this article we focus on the pricing of exchange options when the dynamic of logprices follows either the well-known variance gamma or the recent variance gamma++ process introduced in Gardini et al [19]. In particular, for the former…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-04 Matteo Gardini , Piergiacomo Sabino