English
Related papers

Related papers: Posterior Predictive Treatment Assignment for Esti…

200 papers

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Inverse probability weights are commonly used in epidemiology to estimate causal effects in observational studies. Researchers can typically focus on either the average treatment effect or the average treatment effect on the treated with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-05 Eli Ben-Michael , Luke Keele

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Maresa Schröder , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Konstantin Heß , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Most causal inference studies rely on the assumption of overlap to estimate population or sample average causal effects. When data exhibit non-overlap, estimation of these estimands requires reliance on model specifications, due to poor…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-17 Rachel C. Nethery , Fabrizia Mealli , Francesca Dominici

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-09 Lin Gui , Victor Veitch

A common goal in comparative effectiveness research is to estimate treatment effects on pre-specified subpopulations of patients. Though widely used in medical research, causal inference methods for such subgroup analysis remain…

This paper proposes new estimators for the propensity score that aim to maximize the covariate distribution balance among different treatment groups. Heuristically, our proposed procedure attempts to estimate a propensity score model by…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-04-07 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Xiaojun Song , Qi Xu

Subclassification estimators are one of the methods used to estimate causal effects of interest using the propensity score. This method is more stable compared to other weighting methods, such as inverse probability weighting estimators, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-22 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

The inclusion of the propensity score as a covariate in Bayesian regression trees for causal inference can reduce the bias in treatment effect estimations, which occurs due to the regularization-induced confounding phenomenon. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-30 Pedro Henrique Filipini dos Santos , Hedibert Freitas Lopes

Violations of the positivity assumption can render conventional causal estimands unidentifiable, including the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), and the average treatment effect on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Yi Liu , Yuan Wang , Ying Gao , Tonia Poteat , Roland A. Matsouaka

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

We propose a Bayesian propensity score-augmented latent factor model for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data. The framework explicitly models the treatment assignment mechanism by incorporating latent factor loadings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Licheng Liu

Factor models for longitudinal data, where policy adoption is unconfounded with respect to a low-dimensional set of latent factor loadings, have become increasingly popular for causal inference. Most existing approaches, however, rely on a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-14 Angelo Forino , Andrea Mercatanti , Giacomo Morelli

This paper proposes a new statistical approach for assessing treatment effect using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The goal is to draw causal inferences from observational data with a binary outcome and discrete covariates. The BNs are here used…

The policy relevant treatment effect (PRTE) measures the average effect of switching from a status-quo policy to a counterfactual policy. Estimation of the PRTE involves estimation of multiple preliminary parameters, including propensity…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-17 Yuya Sasaki , Takuya Ura

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for measuring causal effects. However, they are often not always feasible, and causal treatment effects must be estimated from observational data. Observational studies do not allow robust…

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Matching and weighting methods for observational studies involve the choice of an estimand, the causal effect with reference to a specific target population. Commonly used estimands include the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT),…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Noah Greifer , Elizabeth A. Stuart