Related papers: Bayesian Credibility for GLMs
This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent…
Bayesian synthetic likelihood (BSL) is now an established method for conducting approximate Bayesian inference in models where, due to the intractability of the likelihood function, exact Bayesian approaches are either infeasible or…
Clinical prediction models provide a prediction (e.g., estimated risk) for each individual, typically expressed as a point estimate derived from a deterministic function such as a logistic regression equation. Such 'plug-in' predictions…
$\alpha$-stable distributions are utilised as models for heavy-tailed noise in many areas of statistics, finance and signal processing engineering. However, in general, neither univariate nor multivariate $\alpha$-stable models admit closed…
Effective uncertainty quantification is important for training modern predictive models with limited data, enhancing both accuracy and robustness. While Bayesian methods are effective for this purpose, they can be challenging to scale. When…
We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…
Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…
Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
The problem of joint estimation of multiple graphical models from high dimensional data has been studied in the statistics and machine learning literature, due to its importance in diverse fields including molecular biology, neuroscience…
We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…
We describe a Bayesian approach to estimating luminosity functions. We derive the likelihood function and posterior probability distribution for the luminosity function, given the observed data, and we compare the Bayesian approach with…
In this note we present studies of coverage and power for confidence intervals for a Poisson process with known background calculated using the Likelihood ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) ordering with Bayesian treatment of uncertainties in…
Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…
Problems of probabilistic inference and decision making under uncertainty commonly involve continuous random variables. Often these are discretized to a few points, to simplify assessments and computations. An alternative approximation is…
We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…
Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large…
In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…
Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…
It is common practice to use Laplace approximations to compute marginal likelihoods in Bayesian versions of generalised linear models (GLM). Marginal likelihoods combined with model priors are then used in different search algorithms to…