Related papers: A regularity structure for rough volatility
Estimation of Markov Random Field and covariance models from high-dimensional data represents a canonical problem that has received a lot of attention in the literature. A key assumption, widely employed, is that of {\em sparsity} of the…
The process of stochastic Turing instability on a network is discussed for a specific case study, the stochastic Brusselator model. The system is shown to spontaneously differentiate into activator-rich and activator-poor nodes, outside the…
We study the joint variability of structural information in a hard sphere fluid biased to avoid crystallisation and form fivefold symmetric geometric motifs. We show that the structural covariance matrix approach, originally proposed for…
Dynamical instabilities in fluid mechanics are responsible of a variety of important common phenomena, such as waves on the sea surface or Taylor vorteces in Couette flow. In granular media dynamical instabilities has just begun to be…
We examine whether model-based spot volatility estimators extracted from traded options data enhance the predictive power of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model for realized volatility. Specifically, we infer spot volatility under…
In industrial applications it is quite common to use stochastic volatility models driven by semi-martingale Markov volatility processes. However, in order to fit exactly market volatilities, these models are usually extended by adding a…
Motivated by recent applications in rough volatility and regularity structures, notably the notion of singular modelled distribution, we study paths, rough paths and related objects with a quantified singularity at zero. In a pure path…
Motivated by the recent advances in the theory of stochastic partial differential equations involving nonlinear functions of distributions, like the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation, we reconsider the unique solvability of one-dimensional…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test…
The main tool for stochastic calculus with respect to a multidimensional process $B$ with small H\"older regularity index is rough path theory. Once $B$ has been lifted to a rough path, a stochastic calculus -- as well as solutions to…
We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the variance process satisfies a stochastic Volterra equation with the fractional kernel, as in the rough Bergomi and the rough Heston model. In particular, the variance process is…
Using microscopic price models based on Hawkes processes, it has been shown that under some no-arbitrage condition, the high degree of endogeneity of markets together with the phenomenon of metaorders splitting generate rough Heston-type…
We train an LSTM network based on a pooled dataset made of hundreds of liquid stocks aiming to forecast the next daily realized volatility for all stocks. Showing the consistent outperformance of this universal LSTM relative to other…
Regularity theory for diffusive operators is among the finest treasures of the modern mathematical sciences. It appears in several different fields, such as, differential geometry, topology, numerical analysis, dynamical systems,…
We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent…
A classic approach in dynamical systems is to use particular geometric structures to deduce statistical properties, for example the existence of invariant measures with stochastic-like behaviour such as large deviations or decay of…
In this paper, to cope with the shortage of sufficient theoretical support resulted from the fast-growing quantitative financial modeling, we investigate two classes of generalized stochastic volatility models, establish their…
Advanced measurement techniques and high performance computing have made large data sets available for a wide range of turbulent flows that arise in engineering applications. Drawing on this abundance of data, dynamical models can be…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…