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In this paper we develop a continuous-time sequential importance sampling (CIS) algorithm which eliminates time-discretisation errors and provides online unbiased estimation for continuous time Markov processes, in particular for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-19 Paul Fearnhead , Krzystof Latuszynski , Gareth O. Roberts , Giorgos Sermaidis

This work concerns about forward-backward multivalued stochastic systems. First of all, we prove one average principle for general stochastic differential equations in the $L^{2p}$ ($p\geq 1$) sense. Moreover, for $p=1$ a convergence rate…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Huijie Qiao

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

This paper introduces time-continuous numerical schemes to simulate stochastic differential equations (SDEs) arising in mathematical finance, population dynamics, chemical kinetics, epidemiology, biophysics, and polymeric fluids. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

We show the variational convergence of an irreversible Markov jump process describing a finite stochastic particle system to the solution of a countable infinite system of deterministic time-inhomogeneous quadratic differential equations…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Jasper Hoeksema , Chun Yin Lam , André Schlichting

In papers by Yor, a remarkable class $(\Sigma)$ of submartingales is introduced, which, up to technicalities, are submartingales $(X_{t})_{t\geq0}$ whose increasing process is carried by the times $t$ such that $X_{t}=0$. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Fulgence Eyi Obiang , Youssef Ouknine , Octave Moutsinga

In a fractional Cauchy problem, the usual first order time derivative is replaced by a fractional derivative. The fractional derivative models time delays in a diffusion process. The order of the fractional derivative can be distributed…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-14 Mark M. Meerschaert , Erkan Nane , Palaniappan Vellaisamy

Discretization of continuous stochastic processes is needed to numerically simulate them or to infer models from experimental time series. However, depending on the nature of the process, the same discretization scheme, if not accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-04 Federica Ferretti , Victor Chardès , Thierry Mora , Aleksandra M Walczak , Irene Giardina

The infimum of an integrated current is its extreme value against the direction of its average flow. Using martingale theory, we show that the infima of integrated edge currents in time-homogeneous Markov jump processes are geometrically…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-24 Izaak Neri , Matteo Polettini

Semi-Markov processes play an important role in the effective description of partially accessible systems in stochastic thermodynamics. They occur, for instance, in coarse-graining procedures such as state lumping and when analyzing waiting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-19 Alexander M. Maier , Jonas H. Fritz , Udo Seifert

The paper is focused on the numerical solution of stochastic reaction-diffusion problems. A special attention is addressed to the conservation of mean-square dissipativity in the time integration of the spatially discretized problem,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-23 Helena Biščević , Raffaele D'Ambrosio

The convective Brinkman-Forchheimer equations describe the motion of incompressible fluid flows in a saturated porous medium. This work examines the multiscale stochastic convective Brinkman-Forchheimer (SCBF) equations perturbed by…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-18 Manil T. Mohan

We consider a finite state discrete time process X. Without loss of generality the finite state space can be identified with the set of unit vectors {e1, e2, . . . , eN} with ei = (0, . . . , 0, 1, 0, . . . , 0)0 2 RN. For a Markov chain…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-02 Robert J. Elliott

The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Jamaal Ahmad , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt

We consider a two-dimensional Hamiltonian system perturbed by a small diffusion term, whose coefficient is state-dependent and non-degenerate. As a result, the process consists of the fast motion along the level curves and slow motion…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Shuo Yan

Self-normalized processes arise naturally in statistical applications. Being unit free, they are not affected by scale changes. Moreover, self-normalization often eliminates or weakens moment assumptions. In this paper we present several…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Victor H. de la Pena , Michael J. Klass , Tze Leung Lai

This paper studies a large number of homogeneous Markov decision processes where the transition probabilities and costs are coupled in the empirical distribution of states (also called mean-field). The state of each process is not known to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Jalal Arabneydi , Amir G. Aghdam

Counting and uniform sampling of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from a Markov equivalence class are fundamental tasks in graphical causal analysis. In this paper, we show that these tasks can be performed in polynomial time, solving a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-18 Marcel Wienöbst , Max Bannach , Maciej Liśkiewicz

For discrete-time stochastic processes, there is a close connection between return/waiting times and entropy. Such a connection cannot be straightforwardly extended to the continuous-time setting. Contrarily to the discrete-time case one…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jean-Rene Chazottes , Cristian Giardina , Frank Redig

The solution to a multivariate linear Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) with constant initial state is well known to be a Gaussian Markov process, but its covariance kernel involves the solution to an integral equation in the general…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-10 Kerry Fendick