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Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

Binary treatments are often ex-post aggregates of multiple treatments or can be disaggregated into multiple treatment versions. Thus, effects can be heterogeneous due to either effect or treatment heterogeneity. We propose a decomposition…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Phillip Heiler , Michael C. Knaus

We provide guidance on multiple imputation of missing at random treatments in observational studies. Specifically, analysts should account for both covariates and outcomes, i.e., not just use propensity scores, when imputing the missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Joseph Feldman , Jerome P. Reiter

Heckerman (1993) defined causal independence in terms of a set of temporal conditional independence statements. These statements formalized certain types of causal interaction where (1) the effect is independent of the order that causes are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , John S. Breese

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-24 Will Y. Zou , Smitha Shyam , Michael Mui , Mingshi Wang , Jan Pedersen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Although understanding and characterizing causal effects have become essential in observational studies, it is challenging when the confounders are high-dimensional. In this article, we develop a general framework $\textit{CausalEGM}$ for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-20 Qiao Liu , Zhongren Chen , Wing Hung Wong

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to identify and estimate treatment effects. However, when outcomes are qualitative, their application poses…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-30 Riccardo Di Francesco , Giovanni Mellace

In causal analysis, understanding the causal mechanisms through which an intervention or treatment affects an outcome is often of central interest. We propose a test to evaluate (i) whether the causal effect of a treatment that is randomly…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-05 Martin Huber , Kevin Kloiber , Lukáš Lafférs

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Tomas Geffner , George Papamakarios , Andriy Mnih

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Generalized linear models, such as logistic regression, are widely used to model the association between a treatment and a binary outcome as a function of baseline covariates. However, the coefficients of a logistic regression model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Jiaqi Yin , Sonia Markes , Thomas S. Richardson , Linbo Wang

It is important to draw causal inference from observational studies, which, however, becomes challenging if the confounders have missing values. Generally, causal effects are not identifiable if the confounders are missing not at random. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-04 Shu Yang , Linbo Wang , Peng Ding

The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal…

We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Ahmed M. Alaa , Michael Weisz , Mihaela van der Schaar

Many clinical questions involve estimating the effects of multiple treatments using observational data. When using longitudinal data, the interest is often in the effect of treatment strategies that involve sustaining treatment over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Emily Granger , Gwyneth Davies , Ruth H. Keogh

We propose an instrumental variable framework for identifying and estimating causal effects of discrete and continuous treatments with binary instruments. The basis of our approach is a local copula representation of the joint distribution…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Sukjin Han , Kaspar Wüthrich

An important problem in many domains is to predict how a system will respond to interventions. This task is inherently linked to estimating the system's underlying causal structure. To this end, Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) (Peters et…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-21 Christina Heinze-Deml , Jonas Peters , Nicolai Meinshausen

Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to uncover causal relationships in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, most existing MR methods presuppose linear causality, risking bias when the true relationships are nonlinear,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Xinpei Wang , Tao Huang , Jinzhu Jia

Many outcomes of interest in the social and health sciences, as well as in modern applications in computational social science and experimentation on social media platforms, are ordinal and do not have a meaningful scale. Causal analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-07 Alexander Volfovsky , Edoardo M. Airoldi , Donald B. Rubin