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A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Dominik Rothenhäusler

We present a practical and statistically consistent scheme for actively learning binary classifiers under general loss functions. Our algorithm uses importance weighting to correct sampling bias, and by controlling the variance, we are able…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-05-20 Alina Beygelzimer , Sanjoy Dasgupta , John Langford

Used to estimate the risk of an estimator or to perform model selection, cross-validation is a widespread strategy because of its simplicity and its apparent universality. Many results exist on the model selection performances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-01 Sylvain Arlot , Alain Celisse

The determination of the sample size required by a crossover trial typically depends on the specification of one or more variance components. Uncertainty about the value of these parameters at the design stage means that there is often a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , Adrian Mander , James Wason

In statistical exercises where there are several candidate models, the traditional approach is to select one model using some data driven criterion and use that model for estimation, testing and other purposes, ignoring the variability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Snigdhansu Chatterjee , Nitai D. Mukhopadhyay

We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-varying treatment variables, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time dependent outcome. Previous studies have shown that estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-09 Linh Tran , Maya Petersen , Joshua Schwab , Mark J van der Laan

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Amit Moscovich , Saharon Rosset

We propose a general approach to construct weighted likelihood estimating equations with the aim of obtain robust estimates. The weight, attached to each score contribution, is evaluated by comparing the statistical data depth at the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-16 Claudio Agostinelli

Importance sampling is a well developed method in statistics. Given a random variable $X$, the problem of estimating its expected value $\mu$ is addressed. The standard approach is to use the sample mean as an estimator $\bar x$. In…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-09 Georg Hofmann

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Giovanni Saraceno , Claudio Agostinelli , Luca Greco

In this work, we develop an importance sampling estimator by coupling the reduced-order model and the generative model in a problem setting of uncertainty quantification. The target is to estimate the probability that the quantity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Xiaoliang Wan , Shuangqing Wei

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2010-11-24 Matthieu CORNEC

Cross validation is a central tool in evaluating the performance of machine learning and statistical models. However, despite its ubiquitous role, its theoretical properties are still not well understood. We study the asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

Adaptive importance sampling is a class of techniques for finding good proposal distributions for importance sampling. Often the proposal distributions are standard probability distributions whose parameters are adapted based on the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-10 Topi Paananen , Juho Piironen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

In many domains, the exploration process of reinforcement learning will be too costly as it requires trying out suboptimal policies, resulting in a need for off-policy evaluation, in which a target policy is evaluated based on data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 David M. Bossens , Philip S. Thomas

The naive importance sampling estimator, based on samples from a single importance density, can be numerically unstable. Instead, we consider generalized importance sampling estimators where samples from more than one probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-12 Vivekananda Roy , Aixin Tan , James M. Flegal

Surveys are commonly used to facilitate research in epidemiology, health, and the social and behavioral sciences. Often, these surveys are not simple random samples, and respondents are given weights reflecting their probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Adway S. Wadekar , Jerome P. Reiter

Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…