Related papers: Estimate exponential memory decay in Hidden Markov…
Hidden Markov Processes (HMP) is one of the basic tools of the modern probabilistic modeling. The characterization of their entropy remains however an open problem. Here the entropy of HMP is calculated via the cycle expansion of the…
In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…
Hidden Markov models with observations in a Euclidean space play an important role in signal and image processing. Previous work extending to models where observations lie in Riemannian manifolds based on the Baum-Welch algorithm suffered…
Out of the recent advances in systems and control (S\&C)-based analysis of optimization algorithms, not enough work has been specifically dedicated to machine learning (ML) algorithms and its applications. This paper addresses this gap by…
We provide a comprehensive overview of latent Markov (LM) models for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data. The main assumption behind these models is that the response variables are conditionally independent given a latent process…
This paper provides a precise error analysis for the maximum likelihood estimate $\hat{a}_{\text{ML}}(u_1^n)$ of the parameter $a$ given samples $u_1^n = (u_1, \ldots, u_n)'$ drawn from a nonstationary Gauss-Markov process $U_i = a U_{i-1}…
We present a new algorithm for computing the Lyapunov exponents spectrum based on a matrix differential equation. The approach belongs to the so called continuous type, where the rate of expansion of perturbations is obtained for all times,…
The generalized Langevin equation is a model for the motion of coarse-grained particles where dissipative forces are represented by a memory term. The numerical realization of such a model requires the implementation of a stochastic…
Determining entropy rates of stochastic processes is a fundamental and difficult problem, with closed-form solutions known only for specific cases. This paper pushes the state-of-the-art by solving the problem for Hidden Markov Models…
We propose new continuous-time formulations for first-order stochastic optimization algorithms such as mini-batch gradient descent and variance-reduced methods. We exploit these continuous-time models, together with simple Lyapunov analysis…
In forecasting problems it is important to know whether or not recent events represent a regime change (low long-term predictive potential), or rather a local manifestation of longer term effects (potentially higher predictive potential).…
Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…
We propose a two-phase systematical framework for approximation algorithm design and analysis via Lyapunov function. The first phase consists of using Lyapunov function as an input and outputs a continuous-time approximation algorithm with…
We report the application of implicit likelihood inference to the prediction of the macro-parameters of strong lensing systems with neural networks. This allows us to perform deep learning analysis of lensing systems within a well-defined…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
In this work, we will investigate a Bayesian approach to estimating the parameters of long memory models. Long memory, characterized by the phenomenon of hyperbolic autocorrelation decay in time series, has garnered significant attention.…
Estimating the entropy rate of discrete time series is a challenging problem with important applications in numerous areas including neuroscience, genomics, image processing and natural language processing. A number of approaches have been…
Wearable devices including accelerometers are increasingly being used to collect high-frequency human activity data in situ. There is tremendous potential to use such data to inform medical decision making and public health policies.…
We study Bayesian methods for large-scale linear inverse problems, focusing on the challenging task of hyperparameter estimation. Typical hierarchical Bayesian formulations that follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach are possible for…
We consider a hidden Markov model with multiple observation processes, one of which is chosen at each point in time by a policy---a deterministic function of the information state---and attempt to determine which policy minimises the…