Related papers: Evolution of the Global Risk Network Mean-Field St…
With a steadily growing population and rapid advancements in technology, the global economy is increasing in size and complexity. This growth exacerbates global vulnerabilities and may lead to unforeseen consequences such as global…
Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach…
Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental…
We study the mean field approximation of a recent model of cascades on networks relevant to the investigation of systemic risk control in financial networks. In the model, the hypothesis of a trend reinforcement in the stochastic process…
The global financial crisis in 2007-2009 demonstrated that systemic risk can spread all over the world through a complex web of financial linkages, yet we still lack fundamental knowledge about the evolution of the financial web. In…
The dynamics of protection processes has been a fundamental challenge in systemic risk analysis. The conceptual principle and methodological techniques behind the mechanisms involved [in such dynamics] have been harder to grasp than…
Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also…
The World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes annual reports on global risks which have the high impact on the world's economy. Currently, many researchers analyze the modeling and evolution of risks. However, few studies focus on validation of…
This paper elaborates about the potential risk of systemic instabilities in future networks and proposes a methodology to mitigate it. The starting concept is modeling the network as a complex environment (e.g. ecosystem) of resources and…
We consider a financial network represented at any time instance by a random liability graph which evolves over time. The agents connect through credit instruments borrowed from each other or through direct lending, and these create the…
Data-driven risk networks describe many complex system dynamics arising in fields such as epidemiology and ecology. They lack explicit dynamics and have multiple sources of cost, both of which are beyond the current scope of traditional…
There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…
The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…
One of the most important features of spatial networks such as transportation networks, power grids, Internet, neural networks, is the existence of a cost associated with the length of links. Such a cost has a profound influence on the…
We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System on millions of international and regional public news stories, and this system's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We construct the…
The level of systemic risk in economic and financial systems is strongly determined by the structure of the underlying networks of interdependent entities that can propagate shocks and stresses. Since changes in network structure imply…
The World Trade Web (WTW) is a weighted network whose nodes correspond to countries with edge weights reflecting the value of imports and/or exports between countries. In this paper we introduce to this macroeconomic system the notion of…
Complex evolving systems such as the biosphere, ecosystems and societies exhibit sudden collapses, for reasons that are only partially understood. Here we study this phenomenon using a mathematical model of a system that evolves under…
The recent financial crisis have generated renewed interests in fragilities of global financial networks among economists and regulatory authorities. In particular, a potential vulnerability of the financial networks is the "financial…
The global financial system can be represented as a large complex network in which banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions are interconnected to each other through visible and invisible financial linkages. Recently, a lot of…