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In this paper, we develop a comprehensive asymptotic and bootstrap theory for checkerboard-based estimation of lower and upper tail copulas under unknown marginal distributions. The estimator is constructed via local bilinear (checkerboard)…

Log-linear models are a classical tool for the analysis of contingency tables. In particular, the subclass of graphical log-linear models provides a general framework for modelling conditional independences. However, with the exception of…

In this paper we develop a very general class of bivariate discrete distributions. The basic idea is very simple. The marginals are obtained by taking the random geometric sum of a baseline distribution function. The proposed class of…

Employing the framework of regular variation, we propose two decompositions which help to summarize and describel high-dimensional tail dependence. Via transformation, we define a vector space on the positive orthant, yielding the notion of…

Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…

We study nonparametric distance-based (isotropic) local polynomial methods for estimating the boundary average treatment effect curve, a causal functional that captures treatment effect heterogeneity in boundary discontinuity designs. We…

Outlier detection is a major topic in robust statistics due to the high practical significance of anomalous observations. Many existing methods are, however, either parametric or cease to perform well when the data is far from linearly…

Empirical process theory for i.i.d. observations has emerged as a ubiquitous tool for understanding the generalization properties of various statistical problems. However, in many applications where the data exhibit temporal dependencies…

Different dependence scenarios can arise in multivariate extremes, entailing careful selection of an appropriate class of models. In bivariate extremes, the variables are either asymptotically dependent or are asymptotically independent.…

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Risk measures like Marginal Expected Shortfall and Marginal Mean Excess quantify conditional risk and in particular, aid in the understanding of systemic risk. In many such scenarios, models exhibiting heavy tails in the margins and…

Recent empirical and theoretical analyses of several commonly used prediction procedures reveal a peculiar risk behavior in high dimensions, referred to as double/multiple descent, in which the asymptotic risk is a non-monotonic function of…

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

The problem of regression extrapolation, or out-of-distribution generalization, arises when predictions are required at test points outside the range of the training data. In such cases, the non-parametric guarantees for regression methods…

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

We propose a copula-based measure of asymmetry between the lower and upper tail probabilities of bivariate distributions. The proposed measure has a simple form and possesses some desirable properties as a measure of asymmetry. The limit of…

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of…

Copula-based dependence modeling often relies on parametric formulations. This is mathematically convenient, but can be statistically inefficient when the parametric families are not suitable for the data and model in focus. A Bayesian…

We propose a nonparametric quantile regression method using deep neural networks with a rectified linear unit penalty function to avoid quantile crossing. This penalty function is computationally feasible for enforcing non-crossing…