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Related papers: Benefits from Superposed Hawkes Processes

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Repulsive point processes arise in models where competition forces entities to be more spread apart than if placed independently. Simulation of these types of processes can be accomplished using dominated coupling from the past with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-18 Mark L. Huber , Elise McCall , Daniel Rozenfeld , Jason Xu

When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

Temporal logics over finite traces have recently seen wide application in a number of areas, from business process modelling, monitoring, and mining to planning and decision making. However, real-life dynamic systems contain a degree of…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Fabrizio M. Maggi , Marco Montali , Rafael Peñaloza

We prove a law of large numbers and functional central limit theorem for a class of multivariate Hawkes processes with time-dependent reproduction rate. We address the difficulties induced by the use of non-convolutive Volterra processes by…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Thomas Deschatre , Pierre Gruet , Antoine Lotz

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Advice classes in computational complexity have frequently been used to model real-world scenarios encountered in cryptography, quantum computing and machine learning, where some computational task may be broken down into a preprocessing…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2024-05-29 Simon Marshall , Casper Gyurik , Vedran Dunjko

We develop a quasi-likelihood analysis procedure for a general class of multivariate marked point processes. As a by-product of the general method, we establish under stability and ergodicity conditions the local asymptotic normality of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-06 Simon Clinet

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

The Hawkes process is a widely used model in many areas, such as finance, seismology, neuroscience, epidemiology, and social sciences. Estimation of the Hawkes process from continuous observations of a sample path is relatively…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Feng Chen , Jeffrey Kwan , Tom Stindl

Temporal point processes offer a powerful framework for sampling from discrete distributions, yet they remain underutilized in existing literature. We show how to construct, for any target multivariate count distribution with…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-19 Cameron A. Stewart , Maneesh Sahani

Student procrastination and cramming for deadlines are major challenges in online learning environments, with negative educational and well-being side effects. Modeling student activities in continuous time and predicting their next study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Mengfan Yao , Siqian Zhao , Shaghayegh Sahebi , Reza Feyzi Behnagh

We examine the phase transition phenomenon for the Knapsack problem from both a computational and a human perspective. We first provide, via an empirical and a theoretical analysis, a characterization of the phenomenon in terms of two…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-06-28 Nitin Yadav , Carsten Murawski , Sebastian Sardina , Peter Bossaerts

The Hawkes process is used to model point process data where events occur in clusters and bursts. In a standard multivariate Hawkes process, every event that occurs in a dimension has an equal impact on the process intensity. However, this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Gordon J Ross , Isabella Deutsch

The Hawkes process has become a standard method for modeling self-exciting event sequences with different event types. A recent work has generalized the Hawkes process to a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process, which enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-16 Zhen Han , Yunpu Ma , Yuyi Wang , Stephan Günnemann , Volker Tresp

Reinforcement Learning Algorithms are predominantly developed for stationary environments, and the limited literature that considers nonstationary environments often involves specific assumptions about changes that can occur in transition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-25 Ranga Shaarad Ayyagari , Revanth Raj Eega , Ambedkar Dukkipati

High complexity models are notorious in machine learning for overfitting, a phenomenon in which models well represent data but fail to generalize an underlying data generating process. A typical procedure for circumventing overfitting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 James Schmidt

Patient healthcare utilization consists of irregularly time-stamped events, such as outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and emergency encounters, forming individualized care trajectories. Modeling these trajectories is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Saumya Pandey , Varun Chandola

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

A univariate Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process is given by the sum of a baseline intensity and another term that depends on the entire past history…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-04 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-04 Gianluca Rosso