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This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-09 Lewis J. Rendell , Adam M. Johansen , Anthony Lee , Nick Whiteley

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-17 Connie Trojan , Pavel Myshkov , Paul Fearnhead , James Hensman , Tom Minka , Christopher Nemeth

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Brian M. Sadler , Victor Elvira

We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-10 Alkis Gotovos , Hamed Hassani , Andreas Krause , Stefanie Jegelka

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are increasingly used for inference in situations in which the likelihood function is either computationally costly or intractable to evaluate. Extensions of the basic ABC rejection algorithm…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-01 Umberto Simola , Jessica Cisewski-Kehe , Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

Ill-posed linear inverse problems arise frequently in various applications, from computational photography to medical imaging. A recent line of research exploits Bayesian inference with informative priors to handle the ill-posedness of such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-27 Gabriel Cardoso , Yazid Janati El Idrissi , Sylvain Le Corff , Eric Moulines

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

Many popular statistical models for complex phenomena are intractable, in the sense that the likelihood function cannot easily be evaluated. Bayesian estimation in this setting remains challenging, with a lack of computational methodology…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-31 Nial Friel , Antonietta Mira , Chris. J. Oates

We discuss the use of a recent class of sequential Monte Carlo methods for solving inverse problems characterized by a semi-linear structure, i.e. where the data depend linearly on a subset of variables and nonlinearly on the remaining…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-06 Sara Sommariva , Alberto Sorrentino

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a popular set of techniques for approximating high-dimensional probability distributions and their normalizing constants. These methods have found numerous applications in…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-23 Jeremy Heng , Adrian N. Bishop , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, or Particle Filters, are Bayesian filtering algorithms which propagate in time a discrete and random approximation of the a posteriori distribution of interest. Such algorithms are based on Importance…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Roland Lamberti , Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries , François Septier

Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…

Computation · Statistics 2022-03-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

We propose a global optimization algorithm based on the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampling framework. In this framework, the objective function is normalized to be a probabilistic density function (pdf), based on which a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-15 Bin Liu

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods represent a classical set of techniques to simulate a sequence of probability measures through a simple selection/mutation mechanism. However, the associated selection functions and mutation kernels…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-16 Qiming Du , Arnaud Guyader

Sequential Monte Carlo methods which involve sequential importance sampling and resampling are shown to provide a versatile approach to computing probabilities of rare events. By making use of martingale representations of the sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-22 Hock Peng Chan , Tze Leung Lai

We present Bayesian techniques for solving inverse problems which involve mean-square convergent random approximations of the forward map. Noisy approximations of the forward map arise in several fields, such as multiscale problems and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-08 Giacomo Garegnani

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-10 Qifan Song , Yan Sun , Mao Ye , Faming Liang