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Prediction markets are often described as mechanisms that ``aggregate information'' into prices, yet the mapping from dispersed private information to observed market histories is typically noisy, endogenous, and shaped by heterogeneous and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-28 Juan Pablo Madrigal-Cianci , Camilo Monsalve Maya , Lachlan Breakey

We study the complexity of computing Bayes-Nash equilibria in single-item first-price auctions. We present the first efficient algorithms for the problem, when the bidders' values for the item are independently drawn from the same…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Aris Filos-Ratsikas , Yiannis Giannakopoulos , Alexandros Hollender , Charalampos Kokkalis

The auction of a single indivisible item is one of the most celebrated problems in mechanism design with transfers. Despite its simplicity, it provides arguably the cleanest and most insightful results in the literature. When the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Rangeet Bhattacharyya , Parvik Dave , Palash Dey , Swaprava Nath

We study the aggregate welfare and individual regret guarantees of dynamic \emph{pacing algorithms} in the context of repeated auctions with budgets. Such algorithms are commonly used as bidding agents in Internet advertising platforms,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Jason Gaitonde , Yingkai Li , Bar Light , Brendan Lucier , Aleksandrs Slivkins

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Federico Cerutti , Lance M. Kaplan , Angelika Kimmig , Murat Sensoy

Mature internet advertising platforms offer high-level campaign management tools to help advertisers run their campaigns, often abstracting away the intricacies of how each ad is placed and focusing on aggregate metrics of interest to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Vincent Conitzer , Christian Kroer , Debmalya Panigrahi , Okke Schrijvers , Eric Sodomka , Nicolas E. Stier-Moses , Chris Wilkens

Empirical welfare analyses often impose stringent parametric assumptions on individuals' preferences and neglect unobserved preference heterogeneity. We develop a framework to conduct individual and social welfare analysis for discrete…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-05-20 Bart Capéau , Liebrecht De Sadeleer , Sebastiaan Maes

This paper studies equilibrium quality of semi-separable position auctions (known as the Ad Types setting) with greedy or optimal allocation combined with generalized second-price (GSP) or Vickrey-Clarke-Groves (VCG) pricing. We make three…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-11 Hadi Elzayn , Riccardo Colini-Baldeschi , Brian Lan , Okke Schrijvers

In the quest for market mechanisms that are easy to implement, yet close to optimal, few seem as viable as posted pricing. Despite the growing body of impressive results, the performance of most posted price mechanisms however, rely…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-09-23 Shreyas Sekar

This paper considers prior-independent mechanism design, namely identifying a single mechanism that has near optimal performance on every prior distribution. We show that mechanisms with truthtelling equilibria, a.k.a., revelation…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-08-01 Yiding Feng , Jason D. Hartline

Cultural AI benchmarks often rely on implicit assumptions about measured constructs, leading to vague formulations with poor validity and unclear interrelations. We propose exposing these assumptions using explicit cognitive models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Jonathan H. Rystrøm , Kenneth C. Enevoldsen

We study the efficiency of sequential first-price item auctions at (subgame perfect) equilibrium. This auction format has recently attracted much attention, with previous work establishing positive results for unit-demand valuations and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-09-11 Michal Feldman , Brendan Lucier , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Machine learning (ML) models often exhibit bias that can exacerbate inequities in biomedical applications. Fairness auditing, the process of evaluating a model's performance across subpopulations, is critical for identifying and mitigating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Jianhui Gao , Jessica Gronsbell

Motivated by the desire to generate labels for real-time data we develop a method to estimate the dependency structure and accuracy of weak supervision sources incrementally. Our method first estimates the dependency structure associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Richard Gresham Correro

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac

We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-18 David M. Pennock , Michael P. Wellman

We study auction design in a setting where agents can communicate over a censorship-resistant broadcast channel like the ones we can implement over a public blockchain. We seek to design credible, strategyproof auctions in a model that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Tarun Chitra , Matheus V. X. Ferreira , Kshitij Kulkarni

This paper studies mechanism design for auctions with externalities on budgets, a novel setting where the budgets that bidders commit are adjusted due to the externality of the competitors' allocation outcomes-a departure from traditional…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Yusen Zheng , Yukun Cheng , Chenyang Xu , Xiaotie Deng

The Generalized Second Price (GSP) auction is the primary auction used for monetizing the use of the Internet. It is well-known that truthtelling is not a dominant strategy in this auction and that inefficient equilibria can arise. In this…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-28 Ioannis Caragiannis , Christos Kaklamanis , Panagiotis Kanellopoulos , Maria Kyropoulou , Brendan Lucier , Renato Paes Leme , Éva Tardos

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-22 Jeffrey W. Miller , David B. Dunson