Related papers: Large deviations for risk measures in finite mixtu…
Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or…
In various disordered systems or non-equilibrium dynamical models, the large deviations of some observables have been found to display different scalings for rare values bigger or smaller than the typical value. In the present paper, we…
We study the large deviations of sums of correlated random variables described by a matrix product ansatz, which generalizes the product structure of independent random variables to matrices whose non-commutativity is the source of…
A recent article on generalised linear mixed model asymptotics, Jiang et al. (2022), derived the rates of convergence for the asymptotic variances of maximum likelihood estimators. If $m$ denotes the number of groups and $n$ is the average…
We provide an axiomatic approach to general premium principles in a probability-free setting that allows for Knightian uncertainty. Every premium principle is the sum of a risk measure, as a generalization of the expected value, and a…
We present a proposal to deal with the non-normality issue in the context of regression models with measurement errors when both the response and the explanatory variable are observed with error. We extend the normal model by jointly…
In this paper, we consider isotropic and stationary max-stable, inverse max-stable and max-mixture processes $X=(X(s))\_{s\in\bR^2}$ and the damage function $\cD\_X^{\nu}= |X|^\nu$ with $0<\nu<1/2$. We study the quantitative behavior of a…
Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given…
Entropy is a measure of self-information which is used to quantify losses. Entropy was developed in thermodynamics, but is also used to compare probabilities based on their deviating information content. Corresponding model uncertainty is…
Data exhibiting heavy-tails in one or more dimensions is often studied using the framework of regular variation. In a multivariate setting this requires identifying specific forms of dependence in the data; this means identifying that the…
Stratifying factors, like age and gender, can modify the effect of treatments and exposures on risk of a studied outcome. Several effect measures, including the relative risk, hazard ratio, odds ratio, and risk difference, can be used to…
We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…
In this paper, we develop the lower and upper bounds of worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, and symmetric unimodal distributions when mean and variance information are available. We also consider the sharp…
We consider the boundary driven harmonic model, i.e. the Markov process associated to the open integrable XXX chain with non-compact spins. Using the factorial moments we characterize the stationary measure as a mixture of product measures.…
Mixtures of product distributions are a powerful device for learning about heterogeneity within data populations. In this class of latent structure models, de Finetti's mixing measure plays the central role for describing the uncertainty…
Large-scale data are often characterized by some degree of inhomogeneity as data are either recorded in different time regimes or taken from multiple sources. We look at regression models and the effect of randomly changing coefficients,…
We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…
Outer measures can be used for statistical inference in place of probability measures to bring flexibility in terms of model specification. The corresponding statistical procedures such as Bayesian inference, estimators or hypothesis…
The new notion of maturity-independent risk measures is introduced and contrasted with the existing risk measurement concepts. It is shown, by means of two examples, one set on a finite probability space and the other in a diffusion…
We consider the set M_n of all n-truncated power moment sequences of probability measures on [0,1]. We endow this set with the uniform probability. Picking randomly a point in M_n, we show that the upper canonical measure associated with…