English
Related papers

Related papers: A Bayesian spatial hierarchical model for extreme …

200 papers

In most risk assessment studies, it is important to accurately capture the entire distribution of the multivariate random vector of interest from low to high values. For example, in climate sciences, low precipitation events may lead to…

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Chloé Serre-Combe , Nicolas Meyer , Thomas Opitz , Gwladys Toulemonde

To mitigate the risk posed by extreme rainfall events, we require statistical models that reliably capture extremes in continuous space with dependence. However, assuming a stationary dependence structure in such models is often erroneous,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-15 K. R. Saunders , A. G. Stephenson , D. J. Karoly

Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…

Applications · Statistics 2018-12-27 Joshua Hewitt , Miranda J. Fix , Jennifer A. Hoeting , Daniel S. Cooley

Extreme precipitation events occurring over large spatial domains pose substantial threats to societies because they can trigger compound flooding, landslides, and infrastructure failures across wide areas. A hybrid framework for spatial…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-15 Zimu Wang , Yifan Wu , Daning Bi

Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-07 Peng Zhong , Manuela Brunner , Thomas Opitz , Raphaël Huser

One measurement modality for rainfall is a fixed location rain gauge. However, extreme rainfall, flooding, and other climate extremes often occur at larger spatial scales and affect more than one location in a community. For example, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 Carlynn Fagnant , Julia C. Schedler , Katherine B. Ensor

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan , Thomas Opitz

To address the need for efficient inference for a range of hydrological extreme value problems, spatial pooling of information is the standard approach for marginal tail estimation. We propose the first extreme value spatial clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-21 Christian Rohrbeck , Jonathan A Tawn

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-26 Sherman Lo , Peter Watson , Peter Dueben , Ritabrata Dutta

Understanding the spatial distribution of animals, during all their life phases, as well as how the distributions are influenced by environmental covariates, is a fundamental requirement for the effective management of animal populations.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-26 Soraia Pereira , Raquel Menezes , Maria Manuel Angélico , Tiago Marques

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Christopher Bülte , Sohir Maskey , Philipp Scholl , Jonas von Berg , Gitta Kutyniok

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Arnab Hazra , Brian J. Reich , Ana-Maria Staicu

In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-28 V. Yu. Korolev , A. K. Gorshenin , S. K. Gulev , K. P. Belyaev , A. A. Grusho

With the deterioration of climate, the phenomenon of rain-induced flooding has become frequent. To mitigate its impact, recent works adopt convolutional neural network or its variants to predict the floods. However, these methods directly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Feifei Wang , Yong Wang , Bing Li , Qidong Huang , Shaoqing Chen

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-06 Reetam Majumder , Brian J. Reich , Benjamin A. Shaby

The coarse spatial resolution of gridded climate models, such as general circulation models, limits their direct use in projecting socially relevant variables like extreme precipitation. Most downscaling methods estimate the conditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-06 Louise Largeau , Tom Beucler , David Leutwyler , Gregoire Mariethoz , Valerie Chavez-Demoulin , Erwan Koch