Related papers: On Kelly Betting: Some Limitations
A reformulation of the Kelly Criterion is presented. Let $\mathfrak{G}$ be a generic stochastic Bernoulli binary game with outcomes $\mathscr{Z}(I)\in\lbrace -1,1\rbrace$ of N trials for $I=1...N$. The binomial probabilities are…
In the online portfolio optimization framework, existing learning algorithms generate strategies that yield significantly poorer cumulative wealth compared to the best constant rebalancing portfolio in hindsight, despite being consistent in…
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common…
Prompted by a recent experiment by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, this note generalises the Kelly strategy (optimal for simple investment games with log utility) to a large class of practical utility functions and including the effect of…
Betting markets are gaining in popularity. Mean beliefs generally differ from prices in prediction markets. Logarithmic utility is employed to study the risk and return adjustments to prices. Some consequences are described. A modified…
We study the risk criterion for investments based on the drawdown from the maximal value of the capital in the past. Depending on investor's risk attitude, thus his risk exposure, we find that the distribution of these drawdowns follows a…
Models of adaptive bet-hedging commonly adopt insights from Kelly's famous work on optimal gambling strategies and the financial value of information. In particular, such models seek evolutionary solutions that maximize long term average…
In 1956 John Kelly wrote a paper at Bell Labs describing the relationship between gambling and Information Theory. What came to be known as the Kelly Criterion is both an objective and a closed-form solution to sizing wagers when odds and…
The takeoff point for this paper is the voluminous body of literature addressing recursive betting games with expected logarithmic growth of wealth being the performance criterion. Whereas almost all existing papers involve use of linear…
For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…
Risk and uncertainty will always be a matter of experience, luck, skills, and modelling. Leverage is another concept, which is critical for the investor decisions and results. Adaptive skills and quantitative probabilistic methods need to…
In this paper, we consider a discrete-time portfolio with $m \geq 2$ assets optimization problem which includes the rebalancing~frequency as an additional parameter in the maximization. The so-called Kelly Criterion is used as the…
A sequence of spin-1/2 particles polarised in one of two possible directions is presented to an experimenter, who can wager in a double-or-nothing game on the outcomes of measurements in freely chosen polarisation directions. Wealth is…
Financial markets, with their vast range of different investment opportunities, can be seen as a system of many different simultaneous games with diverse and often unknown levels of risk and reward. We introduce generalizations to the…
We investigate the problem of gambling with uncertainty in outcome probabilities. Stochastic optimization models are proposed for optimal investing on events with mutually exclusive outcomes when probabilities are estimated using…
The Kelly or proportional allocation mechanism is a simple and efficient auction-based scheme that distributes an infinitely divisible resource proportionally to the agents bids. When agents are aware of the allocation rule, their…
The main purpose of this study is to introduce a semi-classical model describing betting scenarios in which, at variance with conventional approaches, the payoff of the gambler is encoded into the internal degrees of freedom of a quantum…
This paper proposes a new way of evaluating the accuracy and validity of probabilistic forecasts that change over time (such as an in-game win probability model, or an election forecast). Under this approach, each model to be evaluated is…
The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention. One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then…
In an information-processing investment game, such as the growth of a population of organisms in a changing environment, Kelly betting maximizes the expected log rate of growth. In this paper, we show that Kelly bets are closely related to…