Related papers: Kelly Betting Can Be Too Conservative
The focal point of this paper is the so-called Kelly Criterion, a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are repeated over time. The criterion calls for maximization of the expected value of the…
In this paper, we consider a simple discrete-time optimal betting problem using the celebrated Kelly criterion, which calls for maximization of the expected logarithmic growth of wealth. While the classical Kelly betting problem can be…
We consider games of chance played by someone with external capital that cannot be applied to the game and determine how this affects risk-adjusted optimal betting. Specifically, we focus on Kelly optimization as a metric, optimizing the…
In classic Kelly gambling, bets are chosen to maximize the expected log growth of wealth, under a known probability distribution. Breiman provides rigorous mathematical proofs that Kelly strategy maximizes the rate of asset growth…
Betting games provide a natural setting to capture how information yields strategic advantage. The Kelly criterion for betting, long a cornerstone of portfolio theory and information theory, admits an interpretation in the limit of…
Kelly criterion, that maximizes the expectation value of the logarithm of wealth for bookmaker bets, gives an advantage over different class of strategies. We use projective symmetries for a explanation of this fact. Kelly's approach allows…
For a sequence of binary bets, the Kelly criterion provides a closed-form solution that maximizes the expected growth rate of wealth. In contrast, when multiple bets are placed simultaneously (e.g., in portfolio allocation or prediction…
While the Kelly portfolio has many desirable properties, including optimal long-term growth rate, the resulting investment strategy is rather aggressive. In this paper, we suggest a unified approach to the risk assessment of the Kelly…
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common…
We consider the classic Kelly gambling problem with general distribution of outcomes, and an additional risk constraint that limits the probability of a drawdown of wealth to a given undesirable level. We develop a bound on the drawdown…
We investigate the performance of the Kelly rule in a setting in which the dynamics of the return is represented by a time change process. We find that in this general semi-martingale setting the Kelly rule does not maximize the average…
We study the problem of optimizing the betting frequency in a dynamic game setting using Kelly's celebrated expected logarithmic growth criterion as the performance metric. The game is defined by a sequence of bets with independent and…
The original Kelly criterion provides a strategy to maximize the long-term growth of winnings in a sequence of simple Bernoulli bets with an edge, that is, when the expected return on each bet is positive. The objective of this work is to…
This paper proposes a new way of evaluating the accuracy and validity of probabilistic forecasts that change over time (such as an in-game win probability model, or an election forecast). Under this approach, each model to be evaluated is…
Kelly's criterion is a betting strategy that maximizes the long term growth rate, but which is known to be risky. Here, we find optimal betting strategies that gives the highest capital growth rate while keeping a certain low value of risky…
A sequence of spin-1/2 particles polarised in one of two possible directions is presented to an experimenter, who can wager in a double-or-nothing game on the outcomes of measurements in freely chosen polarisation directions. Wealth is…
Following a series of works on capital growth investment, we analyse log-optimal portfolios where the return evaluation includes `weights' of different outcomes. The results are twofold: (A) under certain conditions, the logarithmic growth…
For sequential betting games, Kelly's theory, aimed at maximization of the logarithmic growth of one's account value, involves optimization of the so-called betting fraction $K$. In this Letter, we extend the classical formulation to allow…
Consider a gambling game in which we are allowed to repeatedly bet a portion of our bankroll at favorable odds. We investigate the question of how to minimize the expected number of rounds needed to increase our bankroll to a given target…
The paper provides a mathematical model and a tool for the focused investing strategy as advocated by Buffett, Munger, and others from this investment community. The approach presented here assumes that the investor's role is to think about…