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Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are an important class of temporal point processes that have enabled key advances in understanding and predicting social information systems. However, due to their complex modeling of temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Maximilian Nickel , Matthew Le

We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Ingemar Kaj , Mine Caglar

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-31 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

A simple Hawkes model have been developed for the price tick structure dynamics incorporating market microstructure noise and trade clustering. In this paper, the model is extended with random mark to deal with more realistic price tick…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-30 Kyungsub Lee , Byoung Ki Seo

This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-10 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Young Lee , Swapnil Mishra , Lexing Xie

We study the continuous time limit of a self-exciting negative binomial process and discuss the critical properties of its intensity distribution. In this limit, the process transforms into a marked Hawkes process. The probability mass…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-24 Kotaro Sakuraba , Wataru Kurebayashi , Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPPs) arise naturally in medical, social, commercial, and financial domains. However, existing Transformer-based methods mostly inject temporal information only via positional encodings, relying on shared…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-25 Xinzi Tan , Kejian Zhang , Junhan Yu , Doudou Zhou

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

It has been suggested that marked point processes might be good candidates for the modelling of financial high-frequency data. A special class of point processes, Hawkes processes, has been the subject of various investigations in the…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-23 Ioane Muni Toke

We define a new model using a Hawkes process as a subordinator in a standard Brownian motion. We demonstrate that this Hawkes subordinated Brownian motion or more succinctly, variance-Hawkes process can be fit to 2018 and 2019 natural gas…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-14 Joshua McGillivray , Anatoliy Swishchuk

This paper investigates optimal execution strategies in intraday energy markets through a mutually exciting Hawkes process model. Calibrated to data from the German intraday electricity market, the model effectively captures key empirical…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-27 Konstantinos Chatziandreou , Sven Karbach

Hawkes process (HP) is a point process with a conditionally dependent intensity function. This paper defines the tempered fractional Hawkes process (TFHP) by time-changing the HP with an inverse tempered stable subordinator. We obtained…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-17 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Stojan Jovanović , John Hertz , Stefan Rotter

Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Isobel Seabrook , Paolo Barucca , Fabio Caccioli

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

The self-exciting Hawkes process is widely used to model events which occur in bursts. However, many real world data sets contain missing events and/or noisily observed event times, which we refer to as data distortion. The presence of such…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-03 Isabella Deutsch , Gordon J. Ross

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

The Hawkes process is a popular point process model for event sequences that exhibit temporal clustering. The intensity process of a Hawkes process consists of two components, the baseline intensity and the accumulated excitation effect due…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-20 Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan , Feng Chen , William Dunsmuir

In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-11 Mads Bonde Raad

The Hawkes model is a past-dependent point process, widely used in various fields for modeling temporal clustering of events. Extending this framework, the multidimensional marked Hawkes process incorporates multiple interacting event types…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Anna Bonnet , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Maya Sadeler-Perrin