Related papers: Learning Predictive Leading Indicators for Forecas…

Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…

The R package BigVAR allows for the simultaneous estimation of high-dimensional time series by applying structured penalties to the conventional vector autoregression (VAR) and vector autoregression with exogenous variables (VARX)…

We propose a new regression algorithm that learns from a set of input-output pairs. Our algorithm is designed for populations where the relation between the input variables and the output variable exhibits a heterogeneous behavior across…

Label distribution learning can characterize the polysemy of an instance through label distributions. However, some noise and uncertainty may be introduced into the label space when processing label distribution data due to artificial or…

Correlation matrices contain a wide variety of spatio-temporal information about a dynamical system. Predicting correlation matrices from partial time series information of a few nodes characterizes the spatio-temporal dynamics of the…

We explore time-varying networks for high-dimensional locally stationary time series, using the large VAR model framework with both the transition and (error) precision matrices evolving smoothly over time. Two types of time-varying graphs…

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

We develop a new framework for learning variational autoencoders and other deep generative models that balances generative and discriminative goals. Our framework optimizes model parameters to maximize a variational lower bound on the…

In the paradigm of multi-task learning, mul- tiple related prediction tasks are learned jointly, sharing information across the tasks. We propose a framework for multi-task learn- ing that enables one to selectively share the information…

In the Multiple Measurements Vector (MMV) model, measurement vectors are connected to unknown, jointly sparse signal vectors through a linear regression model employing a single known measurement matrix (or dictionary). Typically, the…

Solving multiple parametrised related systems is an essential component of many numerical tasks, and learning from the already solved systems will make this process faster. In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic linear solver over…

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality…

Time series prediction has been a long-standing research topic and an essential application in many domains. Modern time series collected from sensor networks (e.g., energy consumption and traffic flow) are often large-scale and incomplete…

Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger…

In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…

We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the…

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach…

We consider the setting where a collection of time series, modeled as random processes, evolve in a causal manner, and one is interested in learning the graph governing the relationships of these processes. A special case of wide interest…

Granger causality analysis, as one of the most popular time series causality methods, has been widely used in the economics, neuroscience. However, unobserved confounders is a fundamental problem in the observational studies, which is still…

Sparsity is a desirable attribute. It can lead to more efficient and more effective representations compared to the dense model. Meanwhile, learning sparse latent representations has been a challenging problem in the field of computer…