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We introduce a framework for calibrating machine learning models so that their predictions satisfy explicit, finite-sample statistical guarantees. Our calibration algorithms work with any underlying model and (unknown) data-generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates , Emmanuel J. Candès , Michael I. Jordan , Lihua Lei

New bounds on classification error rates for the error-correcting output code (ECOC) approach in machine learning are presented. These bounds have exponential decay complexity with respect to codeword length and theoretically validate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-21 Hieu D. Nguyen , Mohammed Sarosh Khan , Nicholas Kaegi , Shen-Shyang Ho , Jonathan Moore , Logan Borys , Lucas Lavalva

We develop a new theoretical framework to analyze the generalization error of deep learning, and derive a new fast learning rate for two representative algorithms: empirical risk minimization and Bayesian deep learning. The series of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-31 Taiji Suzuki

We make two contributions to the problem of estimating the $L_1$ calibration error of a binary classifier from a finite dataset. First, we provide an upper bound for any classifier where the calibration function has bounded variation.…

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-30 Paul Viallard , Maxime Haddouche , Umut Şimşekli , Benjamin Guedj

Online learning methods yield sequential regret bounds under minimal assumptions and provide in-expectation risk bounds for statistical learning. However, despite the apparent advantage of online guarantees over their statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Dirk van der Hoeven , Nikita Zhivotovskiy , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

The effectiveness of non-parametric, kernel-based methods for function estimation comes at the price of high computational complexity, which hinders their applicability in adaptive, model-based control. Motivated by approximation techniques…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-17 Anna Scampicchio , Elena Arcari , Melanie N. Zeilinger

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Hongyi Henry Jin , Zijun Ding , Dung Daniel Ngo , Zhiwei Steven Wu

Positive-unlabeled learning (PU learning) is known as a special case of semi-supervised binary classification where only a fraction of positive examples are labeled. The challenge is then to find the correct classifier despite this lack of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Olivier Coudray , Christine Keribin , Pascal Massart , Patrick Pamphile

Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-19 Matthew D. Cocci , Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

We study iterative methods for (two-stage) robust combinatorial optimization problems with discrete uncertainty. We propose a machine-learning-based heuristic to determine starting scenarios that provide strong lower bounds. To this end, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-26 Marc Goerigk , Jannis Kurtz

In this work, we address the following question: What minimal structural assumptions are needed to prevent the degradation of statistical learning bounds with increasing dimensionality? We investigate this question in the classical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-26 Alexis Ayme , Bruno Loureiro

In this paper, we study data-dependent generalization error bounds exhibiting a mild dependency on the number of classes, making them suitable for multi-class learning with a large number of label classes. The bounds generally hold for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-01 Yunwen Lei , Urun Dogan , Ding-Xuan Zhou , Marius Kloft

Risk bounds for Classification and Regression Trees (CART, Breiman et. al. 1984) classifiers are obtained under a margin condition in the binary supervised classification framework. These risk bounds are obtained conditionally on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-06-27 Servane Gey

In the covariate shift learning scenario, the training and test covariate distributions differ, so that a predictor's average loss over the training and test distributions also differ. In this work, we explore the potential of extreme…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-13 Fulton Wang , Cynthia Rudin

This work considers the problem of binary classification: given training data $x_1, \dots, x_n$ from a certain population, together with associated labels $y_1,\dots, y_n \in \left\{0,1 \right\}$, determine the best label for an element $x$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-04 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray

Designing models that are both expressive and preserve known invariances of tasks is an increasingly hard problem. Existing solutions tradeoff invariance for computational or memory resources. In this work, we show how to leverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Leonardo Cotta , Gal Yehuda , Assaf Schuster , Chris J. Maddison

The recent success of neural networks in pattern recognition and classification problems suggests that neural networks possess qualities distinct from other more classical classifiers such as SVMs or boosting classifiers. This paper studies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-27 Hyunouk Ko , Namjoon Suh , Xiaoming Huo

Finding tight bounds on the optimal solution is a critical element of practical solution methods for discrete optimization problems. In the last decade, decision diagrams (DDs) have brought a new perspective on obtaining upper and lower…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-28 Quentin Cappart , Emmanuel Goutierre , David Bergman , Louis-Martin Rousseau

This paper studies the high-dimensional mixed linear regression (MLR) where the output variable comes from one of the two linear regression models with an unknown mixing proportion and an unknown covariance structure of the random…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Linjun Zhang , Rong Ma , T. Tony Cai , Hongzhe Li
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