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This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
This tutorial shows how various Bayesian survival models can be fitted using the integrated nested Laplace approximation in a clear, legible, and comprehensible manner using the INLA and INLAjoint R-packages. Such models include accelerated…
Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has become increasingly important in medical research, particularly for understanding disease progression in chronic conditions where both repeated biomarker measurements and time-to-event…
There is a growing demand for performing larger-scale Bayesian inference tasks, arising from greater data availability and higher-dimensional model parameter spaces. In this work we present parallelization strategies for the methodology of…
We address in this paper a new approach for fitting spatiotemporal models with application in disease mapping using the interaction types 1,2,3, and 4. When we account for the spatiotemporal interactions in disease-mapping models, inference…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
A plethora of prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Prediction performances not only depend on the structure and features of the model, but also on its parametrization. Official databases are often biased due…
Monitoring cause-of-death data is an important part of understanding disease burdens and effects of public health interventions. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established method for gathering information about deaths outside of hospitals by…
In recent years, spatial and spatio-temporal modeling have become an important area of research in many fields (epidemiology, environmental studies, disease mapping). In this work we propose different spatial models to study hospital…
The issue of state estimation is considered for an SIR-SI epidemiological model describing a vector-borne disease such as dengue fever, subject to seasonal variations. Assuming continuous measurement of the incidence rate (that is the…
In conducting preliminary analysis during an epidemic, data on reported disease cases offer key information in guiding the direction to the in-depth analysis. Models for growth and transmission dynamics are heavily dependent on preliminary…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Disease progression models are widely used to inform the diagnosis and treatment of many progressive diseases. However, a significant limitation of existing models is that they do not account for health disparities that can bias the…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
Epidemiological models may give some basic guidelines for public health practitioners, allowing to analyze issues that can influence the strategies to prevent and fight a disease. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model…
A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…
Mathematical epidemiological models have a broad use, including both qualitative and quantitative applications. With the increasing availability of data, large-scale quantitative disease spread models can nowadays be formulated. Such models…
The Laplace approximation (LA) has been proposed as a method for approximating the marginal likelihood of statistical models with latent variables. However, the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) based on the LA are often…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently,…
This paper proposes a feedback design that effectively copes with uncertainties for reliable epidemic monitoring and control. There are several optimization-based methods to estimate the parameters of an epidemic model by utilizing past…