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We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-24 Joni Virta , Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Axel Bücher , Erik Haufs

The inverse probability weighting approach is popular for evaluating treatment effects in observational studies, but extreme propensity scores could bias the estimator and induce excessive variance. Recently, the overlap weighting approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Chao Cheng , Fan Li , Laine Thomas , Fan Li

Extreme value statistics (EVS) concerns the study of the statistics of the maximum or the minimum of a set of random variables. This is an important problem for any time-series and has applications in climate, finance, sports, all the way…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-10-12 Satya N. Majumdar , Arnab Pal , Gregory Schehr

Patient care may be improved by recommending treatments based on patient characteristics when there is treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a great deal of attention focused on the estimation of optimal treatment rules…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-29 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Michael G. Hudgens , Jessie K. Edwards , Stephen R. Cole

We introduce and study Multi-Quantile estimators for the parameters $( \xi, \sigma, \mu)$ of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to provide a robust approach to extreme value modeling. Unlike classical estimators, such as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-03 Sen Lin , Ao Kong , Robert Azencott

Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approximations of conditional densities. This is achieved for events E_{n}:=(f(X_{1})+...+f(X_{n}))\inA_{n} where the summands are i.i.d. and E_{n} is a…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-02-08 Michel Broniatowski , Virgile Caron

Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Jiaxi Wang , Yanxi Hou , Xingchi Li , Tiandong Wang

Instrumental variable (IV) methods allow us the opportunity to address unmeasured confounding in causal inference. However, most IV methods are only applicable to discrete or continuous outcomes with very few IV methods for censored…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Youjin Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Nandita Mitra

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Tzu-Jung Huang , Alex Luedtke , Ian W. McKeague

Many epidemiological and clinical studies aim at analyzing a time-to-event endpoint. A common complication is right censoring. In some cases, it arises because subjects are still surviving after the study terminates or move out of the study…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Andrew Ying

We exploit the asymptotic normality of the extreme value theory (EVT) based estimators of the parameters of a symmetric L\'evy-stable distribution, to construct confidence intervals. The accuracy of these intervals is evaluated through a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-11 Djamel Meraghni , Louiza Soltane

This paper presents an innovative approach to Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) by introducing the Extreme Value Dynamic Benchmarking Method (EVDBM). EVDBM integrates extreme value theory to detect extreme events and is coupled with the novel…

Interval censoring occurs when event times are only known to fall between scheduled assessments, a common design in clinical trials, epidemiology, and reliability studies. Standard right-censoring methods, such as Kaplan-Meier and Cox…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-04 J. T. Korley

We consider projection methods for the estimation of the cumulative distribution function under interval censoring, case 1. Such censored data also known as current status data, arise when the only information available on the variable of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-29 Elodie Brunel , Fabienne Comte

Survival regression aims to predict the time when an event of interest will take place, typically a death or a failure. A fully parametric method [18] is proposed to estimate the survival function as a mixture of individual parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-25 Qinxin Wang , Jiayuan Huang , Junhui Li , Jiaming Liu

Extreme value theory (EVT) is a statistical tool for analysis of extreme events. It has a strong theoretical background, however, we need to choose hyper-parameters to apply EVT. In recent studies of machine learning, techniques of choosing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Chikara Nakamura

Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-22 Yan Yuan , Qian M. Zhou , Bingying Li , Hengrui Cai , Eric J. Chow , Gregory T. Armstrong

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 J. Lee , Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

Discrimination measures such as the concordance index and the cumulative-dynamic time-dependent area under the ROC-curve (AUC) are widely used in the medical literature for evaluating the predictive accuracy of a scoring rule which relates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Marie Skov Breum , Torben Martinussen