Related papers: A general framework for data-driven uncertainty qu…

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

In this work, we present methodologies for the quantification of confidence in bottom-up coarse-grained models for molecular and macromolecular systems. Coarse-graining methods have been extensively used in the past decades in order to…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of…

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in text generation, reasoning, and decision-making, enabling their adoption in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, law, and transportation. However, their reliability is a major concern, as they often…

Estimating the confidence of large language model (LLM) outputs is essential for real-world applications requiring high user trust. Black-box uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods, relying solely on model API access, have gained…

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

Airfoil icing is a severe safety hazard in aviation and causes power losses on wind turbines. The precise shape of the ice formation is subject to large uncertainties, so uncertainty quantification (UQ) is needed for a reliable prediction…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) helps to make trustworthy predictions based on collected observations and uncertain domain knowledge. With increased usage of deep learning in various applications, the need for efficient UQ methods that can…

The introduction of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) has paved the way for numerous semantic segmentation applications. For several tasks, quantifying the uncertainty of SAM is of particular interest. However, the ambiguous nature of the…

In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the localization of a sound source within adverse acoustic environments. Estimating the position of the source is influenced by various factors, such as noise and reverberation,…

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, natural language processing, and scientific and engineering domains. However, DNNs can make unexpected, incorrect, yet overconfident predictions, leading to…

Quantification of the impact of uncertainty in material properties as well as the input ground motion on structural responses is an important step in implementing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Among various…

Vine copulas allow to build flexible dependence models for an arbitrary number of variables using only bivariate building blocks. The number of parameters in a vine copula model increases quadratically with the dimension, which poses new…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning regression is of wide interest, as it supports critical applications including sequential decision making and risk-sensitive tasks. In heteroskedastic regression, where the uncertainty of the…