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In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

In medical research, a scenario often entertained is randomized controlled $2^2$ factorial design with a binary outcome. By utilizing the concept of potential outcomes, Dasgupta et al. (2015) proposed a randomization-based causal inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-15 Jiannan Lu

Generalized causal effect estimands, including the Mann-Whitney parameter and causal net benefit, provide flexible summaries of treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-Gaussian or multivariate outcomes. We develop a unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-27 Xinyuan Chen , Fan Li

Robins 1997 introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. In his work,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Haben Michael , Yifan Cui , Scott Lorch , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Xinshuai Dong , Ignavier Ng , Biwei Huang , Yuewen Sun , Songyao Jin , Roberto Legaspi , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Clinical trials often evaluate multiple outcome variables to form a comprehensive picture of the effects of a new treatment. The resulting multidimensional insight contributes to clinically relevant and efficient decision-making about…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-14 X. M. Kavelaars , J. Mulder , M. C. Kaptein

In this paper, we apply doubly robust approach to estimate, when some covariates are given, the conditional average treatment effect under parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric structure of the nuisance propensity score and outcome…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Chuyun Ye , Keli Guo , Lixing Zhu

Observational longitudinal data on treatments and covariates are increasingly used to investigate treatment effects, but are often subject to time-dependent confounding. Marginal structural models (MSMs), estimated using inverse probability…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-11 Ruth H. Keogh , Shaun R. Seaman , Jon Michael Gran , Stijn Vansteelandt

Longitudinal voice biomarkers provide a non-invasive source of information for monitoring Parkinson's disease progression, but their statistical analysis is difficult because repeated measurements from the same subject are correlated,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-28 Ran Tong , Lanruo Wang , Tong Wang , Wei Yan

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Damian Machlanski , Spyridon Samothrakis , Paul Clarke

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Evaluating the causal health effects of multivariate, continuous exposures, such as air pollution mixtures, is a critical public health challenge. A primary obstacle is the frequent violation of the positivity assumption, which renders the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Zhuochao Huang , Kejin Dong , Tuo Lin , Joseph Antonelli

Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference from observational studies. Recently, several authors suggest that this problem may be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-25 Dehan Kong , Shu Yang , Linbo Wang

We propose a method to detect model misspecifications in nonlinear causal additive and potentially heteroscedastic noise models. We aim to identify predictor variables for which we can infer the causal effect even in cases of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Christoph Schultheiss , Peter Bühlmann

Several causal parameters in short panel data models are functionals of a nested nonparametric instrumental variable regression (nested NPIV). Recent examples include mediated, time varying, and long term treatment effects identified using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-02 Isaac Meza , Rahul Singh

I propose a quantile-based nonadditive fixed effects panel model to study heterogeneous causal effects. Similar to standard fixed effects (FE) model, my model allows arbitrary dependence between regressors and unobserved heterogeneity, but…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-11 Xin Liu

For the nonparametric estimation of multivariate finite mixture models with the conditional independence assumption, we propose a new formulation of the objective function in terms of penalized smoothed Kullback-Leibler distance. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-29 Xiaotian Zhu , David R. Hunter

A trained neural network can be interpreted as a structural causal model (SCM) that provides the effect of changing input variables on the model's output. However, if training data contains both causal and correlational relationships, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Sai Srinivas Kancheti , Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Vineeth N Balasubramanian , Amit Sharma

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-07 Irene Botosaru , Chris Muris